5th October 2012

After a disappointing few days, the higher class racing of the weekend finally arrives, and there really is some good stuff to dig our teeth into for Friday building up to Sunday's Arc and supporting card. The only major change to the Arc today was the supplementation of Great Heavens, probably not so surprising considering Nathaniel's withdrawal. Whilst a horse being supplemented is usually a big sign for me that they mean business, there are other reasons for Great Heavens involvement; so although the rapidly improving filly may deserve her chance at this level for her supporters, I see it more as a day out to see where she ranks against the very best. On to today's racing, and the focus is undoubtedly Ascot. The going is already soft and with more rain to come, its going to be a really stern test today at the Berkshire track. Seeing out the trip is going to be essential for any selections.

14.20 Ascot

This opening contest may seem a bit of a minefield at first, but the 7 furlong distance in the conditions will mean we need a miler with a good turn of foot to take this or a real proven horse over the distance. As a result a few can be discounted but it will pay to focus on Tartfliette, Dream Tune and GENIUS STEP. It's extremely hard to discount any one of these. Tartfliette has consistently been beaten by several decent types, who have gone on to record success over 7/8 furlongs on soft ground. It will be her 5th race of either 83/84 and whilst that gives her a good go, this may just be her mark as she keeps getting held at it. A place seems to beckon as she does see out her races well, something that will be crucial today due to the going and the nature of Ascot. She's also run well recently at Newmarket which is another positive sign as that is another track where seeing out the trip is important. Dream Tune will certainly give her a race. Although his form doesn't read as well over softer trips, they did come over races longer than today, one being 10 furlongs where the extra distance was clearly too much, and the other a 3 length defeat to Noble Mission. He clearly possesses speed, to win 2 races ago over 6 furlongs, and his recent defeat to Chosen Character has been confirmed since. It's unclear however how he will cope with Ascot's undulations having previously mostly raced on some of Britain's flatter courses. The tentative selection therefore is for Genius Step. Outpaced last time over good to firm, he previously mopped up a 7 furlong contest over soft at Goodwood that had Expense Claim behind. He came on that race for his debut, and his opening run this season will have helped strip him fitter for this. He will appreciate conditions a lot more today and with Frankie back in the saddle he has a good shot at this. His mark of 87 will hopefully look silly in a few races time if he progresses. 8/1

14.55 Ascot

There are also three horses who stand out in this race as if they will appreciate conditions today, namely JAKE'S DESTINY, Gaul Wood and Captain Cat. Of the three, Gaul Wood appeals the least but his progressive profile warrants respect. The other two stand out much more with Captain Cat open to any amount of improvement, but the selection appears to come out best at the weights and has been consistently running well. He appears best suited by conditions similar to what he will get today and he represents the value in the race. 5/1

15.30 Ascot

This looks a good race with FATTSOTA, Silver Lime, Martin Chuzzlewit and Tropical Beat catching the eye. The latter has been running well this year, but I have a suspicion that Ascot isn't quite the right track for him, and in anticipation of today, think he will find it hard to pass the selection. Martin Chuzzlewit finds himself in receipt of 16 pounds from Fattsota, but again seems to show his best form at flatter tracks. The selection however is one of the season's most consistent performers and although top weight will seem like an even bigger burden today, he has the necessary class to pull this off. Silver Lime arguably has the best form in the race but isn't as consistent as Fattsota, and it is unknown how he will handle the conditions. 9/2

16.05 Ascot

This will be a big test to show if Sir Graham Wade is as good as connections believe him to be for next year, but at the current price he's a bit short for my liking, especially as I'm yet to be convinced he is as good on soft as he is on faster going. It will be a stunning performance to come through late like he has done in previous runs and if he is the horse his trainer claims him to be, he should be able to. But after a long season this may be one effort too many. I wouldn't begrudge him the win, as he's done me plenty of favours this year but will be looking elsewhere. Admittedly BIOGRAPHER races with similar tactics, but he has had a far less tiring season and is entitled to improve on his run behind Guarantee which had the aforementioned Sir Graham Wade far behind. He also will definitely handle the going. Good Morning Star has raced in some excellent company this year, but when taking a step down last time didn't perform well so can't be backed with confidence. Signed Up looks a big threat, open to any amount of improvement stepping up in trip and on only his fourth start and may prove the each way value bet. 4/1

16.40 Ascot

I always like it when national hunt horses race over the flat in these long distance races, and ARDLUI's performance behind Countrywide Flame suggests there's more to come from him. He won't be inconvenienced by the trip nor the going and has a big chance. Orsippus seems to save his best for conditions like today and also has a great chance with Fallon in charge. Ocean's Minstrel appears underrated in the market and should run a good race. 4/1

17.15 Ascot

Born To Surprise will be plugging on when others have emptied out in this contest but may find the concession of weight to KHUBALA too much. Signor Sassi warrants respect stepping up in class, and Amadeus Wolf Tone is better than his last race. 8/1

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer