As followers of the blog and the twitter page (@thehorsewhisp) will already know, these are the 4 ante post bets I have already gone in on for Cheltenham. The horse's subsequent form and analysis will be updated here.
World Hurdle - Big Buck's
Little needs to be said about this equine legend. 4 World Hurdles in a row last year and there's little to suggest he's ready to give up his crown now. It is expected that he will continue to clean up on his way to another win in March, and no doubt again in April at Aintree.
6/4 Betfred, Stan James, Totesport
A sparkling return to action at Newbury saw my favourite horse confirm just how good he is in this staying hurdling division. The weekend saw a new pretender come along in the form of Zaidpour, and maybe by March he could be a real threat, but at this stage, Big Buck's was outstanding and unsurprisingly his price moved odds on. At his price he is still value in my eyes for doubles, trebles etc.
5/6 Sportingbet (03/12/2012)
As many of you will now know, Big Buck's looks extremely unlikely to be heading to the World Hurdle after news broke of his injury. It's a terrible shame but there's nothing we can do about it now. The World Hurdle has been thrown open with the news and until I get my head around it a bit more, I'm not too sure who to side with. (18/12/2012)
6/4 Betfred, Stan James, Totesport
A sparkling return to action at Newbury saw my favourite horse confirm just how good he is in this staying hurdling division. The weekend saw a new pretender come along in the form of Zaidpour, and maybe by March he could be a real threat, but at this stage, Big Buck's was outstanding and unsurprisingly his price moved odds on. At his price he is still value in my eyes for doubles, trebles etc.
5/6 Sportingbet (03/12/2012)
As many of you will now know, Big Buck's looks extremely unlikely to be heading to the World Hurdle after news broke of his injury. It's a terrible shame but there's nothing we can do about it now. The World Hurdle has been thrown open with the news and until I get my head around it a bit more, I'm not too sure who to side with. (18/12/2012)
OLBG Mares Hurdle - Quevega
Another superstar, this mare has also secured 4 consecutive victories and in this mares only race it's going to take a rapid improver this year to take this away from her.
11/10 Bet365
Big Buck's withdrawal has thrown open the debate as well as to what race Quevega will race in, with the belief by many being she should go for the World Hurdle now that Walsh would be free to ride her. Whilst I think she would be more than capable of winning, I think they may just stick with the mares hurdle to get 5 wins in a row, but we will see.
World Hurdle 5/1 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Sportingbet, Coral, William Hill
Mares Hurdle 1/1 Bet365, Sky Bet, Sportingbet, Stan James
11/10 Bet365
Big Buck's withdrawal has thrown open the debate as well as to what race Quevega will race in, with the belief by many being she should go for the World Hurdle now that Walsh would be free to ride her. Whilst I think she would be more than capable of winning, I think they may just stick with the mares hurdle to get 5 wins in a row, but we will see.
World Hurdle 5/1 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Sportingbet, Coral, William Hill
Mares Hurdle 1/1 Bet365, Sky Bet, Sportingbet, Stan James
Champion Hurdle - Darlan
Impressive last year when an unfortunate second in the Supreme Novices, he repaid the belief in him at Aintree the month after. Nicky Henderson appears mob handed in this race with so many potential runners, but I was especially taken by this horse's performances last year and with the expected improvement he rates a big threat to anyone. Likely to have McCoy on board on the day as well if the season goes to plan, he looks great value presently.
14/1 Boylesports, Stan James
14/1 Boylesports, Stan James
Gold Cup - Sir Des Champs
Key for this race is a horse with course form who will see out the extended 3 miles and 2 furlongs. We know he stays and we know he loves Cheltenham and his jumping at times is glorious to behold. He's also shown he goes on good, soft and heavy going. What's not to like?
6/1 Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfred, Totesport
Made his seasonal reappearance in the John Durkan at Punchestown where I have to admit he was comprehensively beaten by Flemenstar. As much as I hoped he would win that day, his defeat isn't the worst thing and if anything it builds the anticipation again for the Lexus Chase if both reappear. The intermediate trip clearly favours his rival and I'm hoping for my Gold Cup bet that over 3 miles at Christmas, Willie Mullins' charge can reverse form. Even so, I'll take heart from a narrow defeat if he is closing. Look last year how Long Run lost both the Betfair Chase & the King George to Kauto but would almost certainly have finished ahead of him in the Gold Cup had they both finished. Admittedly the confidence has been knocked but I think we'll have a better idea come Christmas who is the number 1 Irish hope for the main event is and Sir Des Champs immense Cheltenham record still counts for much. Let's not forget Bobs Worth & co either for the big race.
7/1 Ladbrokes (10/12/2012)
6/1 Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfred, Totesport
Made his seasonal reappearance in the John Durkan at Punchestown where I have to admit he was comprehensively beaten by Flemenstar. As much as I hoped he would win that day, his defeat isn't the worst thing and if anything it builds the anticipation again for the Lexus Chase if both reappear. The intermediate trip clearly favours his rival and I'm hoping for my Gold Cup bet that over 3 miles at Christmas, Willie Mullins' charge can reverse form. Even so, I'll take heart from a narrow defeat if he is closing. Look last year how Long Run lost both the Betfair Chase & the King George to Kauto but would almost certainly have finished ahead of him in the Gold Cup had they both finished. Admittedly the confidence has been knocked but I think we'll have a better idea come Christmas who is the number 1 Irish hope for the main event is and Sir Des Champs immense Cheltenham record still counts for much. Let's not forget Bobs Worth & co either for the big race.
7/1 Ladbrokes (10/12/2012)
Prices correct as of 26/10/2012
As to any other horses that start to pop up as the season goes on, they will also be posted on this page below this paragraph and again will receive updates as and when they race.
For Non Stop - really put a bold claim in for Cheltenham with a stunning victory in the Old Roan Chase, drawing readily clear and winning easily. Although very taking on the eye, and leading to a big move in the Ryanair market (33s into 10s), the promise of this win needs to be confirmed in the future. Remember this was a handicap event where he received plenty of weight from some decent but not superb horses. He may have beaten Noble Prince, who before the race was seen as a good wager for the same event, but I've never been a huge fan of his and For Non Stop will need to run well again for me. Admittedly, the Ryanair is certainly winnable for For Non Stop, as likely opposition at the moment seems to be Riverside Theatre, Rubi Light and Medermit, but there is also the chance of Grands Crus, Flemenstar and many more. A typically competitive renewal of the Ryanair is expected, and on this handicap win he may deserve his place, but I'd like to see more in between now and March to get on myself.
10/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power (29/10/2012)
Did little to harm his Ryanair credentials in the Amlin Chase. Although losing to Captain Chris, this was a decent enough performance in the heavy ground which would have suited the Hobbs' stayer on top of conceding 6 pounds. I'm not sure it's enough though to build on the Old Roan performance to suggest he can beat those ahead of him in the market but if he continues like this and puts another good run in between now and March he may have place claims.
14/1 William Hill (26/11/2012)
Go Native - continued his return to obstacles with a very taking victory in a 1 mile 6 furlong flat race at Galway. He quickened away well to show the pace that made him a Champion Hurdle favourite may still be there, and I for one am extremely keen to see his return to hurdling to see how much of his old jumping ability he retains. Based on the view that a good horse rarely loses its way so horrifically over an obstacle, the fact his trainer says he is coming back to his best is exciting. The 50/1 available on him before that Galway race is long gone and even the current top price of 33/1 could look very big if his hurdling in the Morgiana Hurdle is up to scratch (likely next port of call). Seeing as he rates as one of the old boys in the likely 2013 Champion Hurdle, and therefore puts him on a line with Binocular, to think he is more than double the price of his old adversary is comical, especially as by March I'm sure he will be at peak fitness. His season will continue to be watched with interest.
33/1 Stan James, William Hill (29/10/2012)
Continued his run up to Cheltenham with a defeat in the Morgiana behind Hurricane Fly, cruising up to the last before taking a tumble. It's unknown how he would have finished and if he would have beaten Mullins' horse but the performance showed he still retains his hurdling ability and he can surely be deemed a live each way player come March.
20/1 Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power (19/11/2012)
It was with great sadness that we discovered that Go Native had suffered a fatal accident. It's always a tragedy when a horse dies in this manner, but is particularly stirring with Noel Meade's horse following the extremely long process to get him back to the track following an injury. As always our thoughts are with the horse's connections.
For Non Stop - really put a bold claim in for Cheltenham with a stunning victory in the Old Roan Chase, drawing readily clear and winning easily. Although very taking on the eye, and leading to a big move in the Ryanair market (33s into 10s), the promise of this win needs to be confirmed in the future. Remember this was a handicap event where he received plenty of weight from some decent but not superb horses. He may have beaten Noble Prince, who before the race was seen as a good wager for the same event, but I've never been a huge fan of his and For Non Stop will need to run well again for me. Admittedly, the Ryanair is certainly winnable for For Non Stop, as likely opposition at the moment seems to be Riverside Theatre, Rubi Light and Medermit, but there is also the chance of Grands Crus, Flemenstar and many more. A typically competitive renewal of the Ryanair is expected, and on this handicap win he may deserve his place, but I'd like to see more in between now and March to get on myself.
10/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power (29/10/2012)
Did little to harm his Ryanair credentials in the Amlin Chase. Although losing to Captain Chris, this was a decent enough performance in the heavy ground which would have suited the Hobbs' stayer on top of conceding 6 pounds. I'm not sure it's enough though to build on the Old Roan performance to suggest he can beat those ahead of him in the market but if he continues like this and puts another good run in between now and March he may have place claims.
14/1 William Hill (26/11/2012)
Go Native - continued his return to obstacles with a very taking victory in a 1 mile 6 furlong flat race at Galway. He quickened away well to show the pace that made him a Champion Hurdle favourite may still be there, and I for one am extremely keen to see his return to hurdling to see how much of his old jumping ability he retains. Based on the view that a good horse rarely loses its way so horrifically over an obstacle, the fact his trainer says he is coming back to his best is exciting. The 50/1 available on him before that Galway race is long gone and even the current top price of 33/1 could look very big if his hurdling in the Morgiana Hurdle is up to scratch (likely next port of call). Seeing as he rates as one of the old boys in the likely 2013 Champion Hurdle, and therefore puts him on a line with Binocular, to think he is more than double the price of his old adversary is comical, especially as by March I'm sure he will be at peak fitness. His season will continue to be watched with interest.
33/1 Stan James, William Hill (29/10/2012)
Continued his run up to Cheltenham with a defeat in the Morgiana behind Hurricane Fly, cruising up to the last before taking a tumble. It's unknown how he would have finished and if he would have beaten Mullins' horse but the performance showed he still retains his hurdling ability and he can surely be deemed a live each way player come March.
20/1 Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power (19/11/2012)
It was with great sadness that we discovered that Go Native had suffered a fatal accident. It's always a tragedy when a horse dies in this manner, but is particularly stirring with Noel Meade's horse following the extremely long process to get him back to the track following an injury. As always our thoughts are with the horse's connections.
Oscars Well - put in an eyecatching win at Punchestown to throw down his early season claim for the Arkle. It does look likely to be an incredibly hot race though and we will see how he continues to progress over the season. The result was enough however to see his odds come in to 8s from 14s with some bookmakers.
12/1 Coral (31/10/2012)
Another to take a tumble, he fell less involved at only the second fence. It's a slight worry but each horse is susceptible to a fall and it may have been more down to the early fast pace. More of a concern is how he will respond from it as his trainer says he's a bit sore after it. It may knock his confidence so his response will be important on his next racecourse visit.
16/1 Ladbrokes (19/11/2012)
Put his bad fall behind him to cruise up at Navan. He never looked in trouble and will have given his supporters for the Arkle a confidence boost. It shows he has a lot of heart as well to crash out like that and come back and show no ill effects. I think he's a real player for the Arkle but then again it's such a hot race this year.
12/1 Coral, William Hill (10/12/2012)
Kauto Stone - just like his trainer said, improved for the step up to 3 miles to land the JNWine.com Champion Chase which creates the issue of what would he race in if he were to go to Cheltenham. The Ryanair would seemingly be over a distance below his best, and the Gold Cup looks very ambitious, although not completely out of the question. All this however may seem irrelevant as he hasn't showed so far he races as well in the spring as in the autumn and he may not participate at Cheltenham altogether.
Gold Cup 25/1 Stan James, Sky Bet; Ryanair Chase 20/1 Paddy Power (04/11/2012)
Silviniaco Conti - Nicholls' Gold Cup contender 2014, if he continues to have a good season it would be hard to avoid the contest this year but not completely impossible. Another who seems destined to be campaigned at 3 miles plus from now on he may bypass the Festival this year again to race at Aintree before taking on Prestbury Park next year another year older, wiser and stronger.
Gold Cup 16/1 Boylesports; Ryanair Chase 8/1 Stan James (04/11/2012)
Following a great performance in the Betfair Chase, Nicholls looks set to campaign Silviniaco Conti at this year's Gold Cup. After beating last year's second and third, and will the ill-fated Synchronised obviously not reappearing, it's impossible to turn down the chance to take the sport's biggest prize. He won extremely well in soft conditions and showed just how good this season's group of second season chasers are. If Sir Des Champs skips a beat in the run up to Cheltenham, expect this son of Dom Alco to contract further in the market, but you can't argue with him being joint favourite currently. The only concern is the gap that is being left between now and the race. Although he seems to run best fresh, its an unusual step to put a horse away for Cheltenham at this stage, with a final run before winning the race usually in a month's time during the Christmas period or early January. Normally I strike a mark through horses that don't run in the calendar year for the Festival, but the Gold Cup is different and this extra month may not do him any harm come the race. Ultimately as well I have this niggling doubt about whether Nicholls' really wants to run him. He's no other likely Gold Cup horses at this stage, but he deserves his chance, the experience will only help him in future if he doesn't win and as I'm sure you'll hear nearer the time, when these chances come along you have to take them, as they may not come again.
7/1 Bet365, Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Betvictor, BlueSq, 888sport (19/11/2012)
Cristal Bonus - really caught the eye with a good win in the Ladbrokes Chase pushing Bog Warrior to his limits forcing the latter to fall. At this stage his likely race would be the Ryanair Chase, but as always that looks a very competitive race and he has never shown the same zest around Cheltenham as at other tracks. Another who looks hard to place and who ultimately may be better aimed at Aintree. On top of this he is a real soft ground lover and if conditions don't prevail in March/April he would be susceptible.
16/1 Paddy Power (04/11/2012)
Une Artiste - has already shown a liking for Cheltenham and her trainer has always said she has bags of stamina. Whether he aims her at taking one of the monumental scalps of Quevega or Big Buck's though is yet to be seen, and more likely is an attempt in one of the handicap hurdles like last year where she would be tough to beat if continuing to show good form this season. (04/11/2012)
Our Vinnie - looks likely this horse will be aimed at the Albert Bartlett and he's quickly become a firm favourite for this blog winning at 3/1 last time out and placing 2nd at Cheltenham at an advised price of 7/1. Showed himself a thorough stayer to rally after the last at Cork to win in a close finish, he's already performed well at Cheltenham and he has to have a chance if continuing to run well up to then. No price available (05/10/2012)
Dedigout - performed well on his chasing debut at Punchestown to score by 34 lengths without being asked a question. Obvious target is the RSA Chase but soft ground is what he thrives in and to back him before March may be a bit risky as on faster ground, which they may run on in March, he may be susceptible to someone else on the day. It would be good to see him tackle some faster ground and decent opposition beforehand to see how he copes, but then again if he performs well his value will disappear.
20/1 Boylesports (6/11/2012)
Prior to his race in the Drinmore the form of his earlier victory had been confirmed by the 2nd placed horse going on to win twice and I was pretty confident of victory. He gave plenty of room however to Arvika Ligeonniere and even when trying to rally towards the end, he barely impacted on the winner. It doesn't bode well if he were to renew rivalries with that horse, but Mullins has suggested the latter could go for the Arkle. Certainly over 3 miles it would be interesting to see how the form would look.
RSA Chase 20/1 Boylesports, Betvictor, Stan James (3/12/2012)
Cue Card - an extremely good showing in the Haldon Gold Cup where his front running drilled Edgardo Sol and Menorah into the ground. The real question is where does he go from here. He's being aimed at the King George so his Cheltenham target should be either the Ryanair or Gold Cup. He'll have to prove he has the stamina for the Gold Cup so at this stage the Ryanair seems more likely but as always it looks such a competitive race. Some feel he'll run in the Champion Chase but I can't imagine connections will be wanting to face Sprinter Sacre anytime soon after last year's experience.
Gold Cup 33/1 Stan James, Paddy Power; Ryanair Chase 7/1 Betvictor, Boylesports, William Hill (06/11/2012)
Knockara Beau - deserves a mention for finishing 6th in last year's Gold Cup and showing a return to form at Kelso at the weekend. He has a good record at Cheltenham, especially around March and if connections decide to take a step down this year and focus on a more winnable prize, such as one of the handicaps, he may be a value bet in some race over the course of the week in March. (12/11/2012)
Attempted to follow up at Kelso in a handicap conceding plenty of weight to his rivals. He became outpaced at one point and plugged on past weakening rivals to finish 3rd. I think he clearly needs longer trips to see the best of him (this race over 23.5 furlongs) so would probably want to see him in a 3miles+ race at the Festival if he were to race there to see the best of him. (10/12/2012)
Overturn - put in an impressive chase debut to indicate he really should be a player in this year's Arkle. Second in last year's Champion Hurdle, he was always going to be involved if he could indicate that jumping a fence would be no concern for him. He jumped well and seemed as if further improvement is likely and at this moment rates a far better proposition that Simonsig who we are yet to see jump a fence. The Arkle doesn't look likely to be short on talent this year and a bigger field is expected compared to last year's mauling by Sprinter Sacre. It could be one of the highlights of this season's Festival and Donald McCain's number one hope could be hard to peg back if given an uncontested lead.
8/1 Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power, Sky Bet (12/11/2012)
Zarkandar - did a really good job to win the Elite hurdle conceding bags of weight to his rivals. He's a horse I adore and after this performance it will be hard to go against him in the Champion Hurdle as that looks his likely destination and his aim all season. He continues to improve, is lightly raced and has already done so much to show he is out the top drawer. Of the older hurdlers he is very much a threat.
8/1 virtually all (12/11/2012)
A good win in the International Hurdle has further confirmed the chances of Paul Nicholls' leading hurdler. He ran well to beat Rock On Ruby and Grandouet but the two were running first time out and had to concede 4 pounds to the winner which has led many to believe Grandouet is the better Champion Hurdle bet. I'm not so sure as Zarkandar has now thrice beaten Grandouet, for various different reasons, and ultimately he is just as entitled to improve in the run up to the Festival at only 5 years old and with only 12 runs. It all helps to add depth to an already intriguing race.
7/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes (18/12/2012)
Flemenstar - an impressive victory in the Fortria Chase showing the drop back to 2 miles was no problem for him and running the field into the ground from the front. Aiming for the Gold Cup it is natural to compare him to Sir Des Champs and at this moment I still prefer the latter with proven Cheltenham form, winning so far beyond 3 miles and I prefer his jumping. The two look like they could clash in the John Durkan which would be mouthwatering and would really show us how they rate against one another.
9/1 Stan James (12/11/2012)
Another really impressive victory in the John Durkan has sent Flemenstar to the head of the betting for the Gold Cup. Seeing as he was favourite for the race I was interested to see how his odds would have altered with victory, and now it has happened I can appreciate he goes ahead of Sir Des Champs without sending the latter's odds out dramatically. I've no doubt that Flemenstar will stay 3 miles, coming from Flemensfirth and with plenty of relatives in the family who stay; but I wonder if the longer trip will favour his rivals more and I certainly think that attempting the Gold Cup trip with no prior Cheltenham experience is a big negative, especially against two horses in Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs who stay up the hill so well. He deserves the accolades that come from his victory, but until we see how he fares in the Lexus, I am still favouring Willie Mullins' horse of the Irish challengers.
7/1 Boylesports, William Hill (10/12/2012)
Hurricane Fly - made his seasonal reappearance with victory in the Morgiana Hurdle. Being driven by Walsh when Go Native fell at the last, many will feel he may have been beaten but take into account as well the race wasn't run to suit, he'll come on for the run and Ruby feels a lot more confident in the saddle with him this year. I personally am not a fan, thinking he may be part of the older contingent that are going to be undone by this extremely impressive batch of youngsters, but he is certainly still a top class proposition and has been there and done it before.
11/2 William Hill, Stan James (19/11/2012)
Captain Conan - laid his Arkle claims on the line with a good win over Sire De Grugy. It shows Henderson's horse has improved for the switch to fences having been rated inferior to his rival over hurdles and he jumped really well. The only concern is that Henderson seems to rate Simonsig as his yard's main hope for the race but that could ensure he goes to the race slightly underrated and at a far better price. The joy of national hunt is that anything can happen mid race and Captain Conan certainly can be involved in the finish come March.
10/1 Ladbrokes (19/11/2012)
If it wasn't for the fact that Nicky Henderson still has Simonsig to unleash, I think this boy would be favourite for the Arkle. He put in another really good display to win the Henry VIII Chase at Sandown, comprehensively beating Hinterland in the process and putting in an immaculate round of jumping. He led from the front and made the gallop himself, which he won't have to do on the big day, and he looks all set to make a big impact in whatever division he goes into next season. Big player. Henderson hasn't ruled out going further, but whether that would be in time for March I'm not sure. Nevertheless there are plenty of prices about for the Jewson but he would have to show he could really mix it with the impressive bunch of two and half miler novices.
Arkle 7/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, Coral; Jewson 8/1 Bet365, Paddy Power (10/12/2012)
Dynaste - a very taking display at Cheltenham to beat Fingal Bay, he travelled well and showed a turn of foot to win over 20.5 furlongs. His ability to stay 3 miles shouldn't be doubted and he is a worthy favourite at this stage for the RSA. If they can keep that turn of foot when he steps up to 3 miles again that would be truly devastating.
8/1 Betfred, Totesport (19/11/2012)
Another good display to give Court In Motion a 4 length defeat whilst conceding 7 pounds at Newbury. There's plenty of talk he should be aimed for the Jewson rather than the RSA. We'll have to see whether he takes in the Feltham over Christmas.
RSA Chase 7/1 Totesport, Betfred; Jewson Novices Chase 7/1 Paddy Power (30/11/2012)
Whilst I think he could be pretty much nailed on for the RSA this year, Big Buck's withdrawal has opened the possibility of David Pipe's charge taking the World Hurlde in. I would prefer to see him over fences as he's such a good jumper, but they may be tempted to go for the bigger prize on Thursday.
RSA Chase 5/1 Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Betvictor, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, 888sport, Ladbrokes, Coral; Jewson Chase 7/1 Paddy Power; World Hurdle (only available on Betfair currently) (18/12/2012)
Our Father - the other big RSA signal from the Open Meeting, he beat Sire Collonges very impressively on debut and gives David Pipe a strong hand in this race. As a result it will be interesting to see how they are campaigned and Pipe is certainly more of a Dynaste fan at this stage. It's also worth noting he received a very handy weight allowance on the day but the manner of his victory was very good.
11/1 Paddy Power, Sky Bet (19/11/2012)
Comprehensively beaten by Highland Lodge in heavy conditions at Cheltenham, the horse seems to have suffered from his usual poor performance after excelling first time out. Connections were hoping that wouldn't be the case, but he will be given plenty of time off in between now and his next run. It doesn't bode well for his RSA chances as not running in the Calendar year is usually a big help to the winner.
25/1 Sky Bet, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Betvictor, Stan James (18/12/2012)
Far West - the Triumph Hurdle market is only beginning to take shape so it's natural for Far West to head the market as his form is the strongest on offer of those we have already seen. He's also shown a great Cheltenham attitude by going away up the hill and he is certainly one to follow in the build up. The only concern at the moment would be seeing how he handles quicker ground, but if he races and shows he is as good on good ground as he is with cut underneath, he would become a leading Festival fancy.
12/1 Boylesports (19/11/2012)
Further consolidated his position at the head of the Triumph market with a second comfortable win at Cheltenham. The only concern currently is how he would deal with faster ground as he is certainly bred to appreciate softer conditions, and arguably has only won his previous races because of the way he handles the going. However the manner in which he has won has shown for me he is a major threat for the race and has a big chance.
10/1 Ladbrokes (18/12/2012)
Al Ferof - what a performance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and what a headache he must be now for connections! He's clearly a live player for the Ryanair, but with the King George his next target and the step up to 3 miles he has to be a possible for the Gold Cup. However we've yet to see how he would cope with the step up in trip and the King George will be a good indicator of that if he is still involved at the finish. Stamina is certainly in his pedigree though through his sire so it wouldn't be a surprise if he could stay the Gold Cup's extended 25 furlongs and he's already shown his liking for Cheltenham. With Silviniaco Conti possibly being saved for an attempt at the showpiece event next year, he could just be Nicholls' representative this time around.
Gold Cup 20/1 Boylesports; Ryanair Chase 8/1 Sky Bet, Boylesports, Betvictor (19/11/2012)
This article however http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/Paul-Nicholls-Cheltenham-Gold-Cup-cards-Al-Ferof/story-17393904-detail/story.html suggests the Ryanair will be the likely target.
8/1 Betvictor, Boylesports (22/11/2012)
Another who unfortunately won't be making an appearance at Cheltenham this year due to injury. He would have been a huge player in the Ryanair, as one of the likely few at the head of the market who would have actually gone for the race, and his absence is very unfortunate.
Don Cossack - showed why he's favourite for the Supreme Novices by winning at a canter from Sizing Gold who's a fair enough yardstick at this stage of the season for this division. There's very little to not like about this horse, with the only concerns at the moment that his hurdling can improve (and surely it will) and whether he will be as effective on fast ground if he faces it in March. If you are a fan of his, then the price 12/1 price currently available should be seized on seeing as he is as low as 7/1 with other bookmakers.
12/1 Paddy Power, Stan James, Coral (26/11/2012)
If you haven't seen it yet, then Don Cossack's fall at Navan is bizarre, getting over the last flight, before taking a step and then doing what can only be described as a front flip. The horse is OK but sore and apart from having to overcome that, he was already beaten and as a result has seen a serious drift in the antepost markets. He doesn't look likely anymore to be heading for the Supreme, with an emphasis on distance expected, but another run will have to be seen before deciding if he is a Cheltenham bet at all anymore.
Supreme Novices 20/1 Sky Bet, Sportingbet, Stan James; Albert Bartlett 10/1 Totesport, Betfred, Betvictor, Stan James; Neptune Hurdle 16/1 Boylesports (18/12/2012)
Long Run - did little to improve my opinion of him or his Gold Cup chances with his seasonal reappearance in the Betfair Chase. Jumped with the usual untidiness that means he is always a lay bet in my eyes. He will no doubt still attract supporters at his current price who will look to his poor record fresh and his proven Gold Cup record, but for me he is vulnerable to some extremely progressive younger horses.
10/1 Boylesports (26/11/2012)
The Giant Bolster - many will have got involved with David Bridgwater's stable star following his heroics last year and shouldn't be too concerned by his third in the Betfair Chase. He reversed early season form last year at his beloved Cheltenham and is still available at a price that means he is an each way bet for this year's contest. Of the horses from the older generation, he makes more appeal than Long Run, but ultimately may also find the younger horses too good.
25/1 Totesport, Betfred, Betvictor, Ladbrokes (26/11/2012)
Finian's Rainbow - will continue to be the most unfancied Champion Chase champion to defend his title in recent memory if he puts more performances like his Amlin Chase in. Admittedly he had to concede weight to smart rivals and on his first run will not have been drawn into a battle by Henderson who is certainly picking his races carefully. However he is being abandoned by Geraghty in favour of stablemate Sprinter Sacre and then has to also push himself ahead of Sanctuaire. His defence looks unlikely at this stage.
7/1 Sky Bet, Stan James (26/11/2012)
Captain Chris - following his Amlin Chase victory he looks Ryanair bound again if lining up at Cheltenham. His tendency to jump right will always be a worry around left handed tracks but he clearly possess the speed and stamina to be involved. He doesn't excite as much as the other market principals but is a classy sort and shouldn't be dismissed at this stage. Another good performance though will be required for him to be a major contender in an already competitive race.
16/1 Totesport, Betfred, Boylesports (26/11/2012)
Oscar Whisky - continued to cause his trainer a headache by winning the Coral Hurdle in some style. With the lack of a top class two and a half mile hurdle event at Cheltenham, his season looks set to revolve around the Aintree Hurdle again. His attempt to dethrone Big Buck's last year showed he has a way to find with that rival for the World Hurdle but an interesting alternative would be to take similar tactics to Rock On Ruby winning the Champion Hurdle last year. That race is far more competitive however and with Henderson so well equipped for it, he looks more likely to try to grab a sizeable prize behind Big Buck's and look to Aintree for more glory.
Champion Hurdle 14/1 Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Stan James, Coral, William Hill; World Hurdle 25/1 Sky Bet, Boylesports, Stan James (26/11/2012)
Another effortless win over the intermediate trip, his Cheltenham hopes have been improved by the disappearance of Big Buck's. His owner is not keen to commit him but has indicated that he feels 3 miles may yet still be within his range. A decision will be made after his next race on New Years Day but if it was soft at the Festival he would head for the Champion Hurdle. Alternatively though he may still skip it altogether to win at Aintree again. A definite case to hold on to see where he heads.
World Hurdle 7/1 Sky Bet, Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, Coral; Champion Hurdle 14/1 Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill (18/12/2012)
Champion Court - my early pick for the Ryanair, his second at Ascot on his reappearance was pleasing enough. He had to concede 20 pounds to the winner that day who looked well handicapped, racing off 135 having won his previous two novice chase races to score BHA marks of 139 and 136. He also had a slight setback earlier in the season which meant he missed his intended first race and over a less than ideal 17 furlongs, it was enough of a performance to show he can still mix it in the Ryanair as an each way player.
16/1 Betvictor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill (26/11/2012)
Diakali - another early contender for the Triumph Hurdle following an impressive win at Gowran. He travelled extremely well to cruise to victory and although at this moment his jumping doesn't look as refined as Far West's, he would warrant serious respect if he manages to beat a decent rival somewhere along the lines.
20/1 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Betvictor, Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes (26/11/2012)
Sire De Grugy - deserves an outright mention after winning twice over fences and a close enough second to Captain Conan. He won in desperate conditions at Lingfield but it seems like better ground and a faster pace will bring the best out of him, which bodes well for the Arkle which looks set to be a really good encounter. I'm not sure though whether he has enough to reverse form with Captain Conan and a place looks like the best he can hope for at this stage.
20/1 Bet365, Sportingbet, Stan James, Ladbrokes (27/11/2012)
Arvika Ligeonniere - a truly sparkling performance in the Drinmore, he rode well clear and stayed on very well to rout his rivals, including the useful Dedigout. He had been in the 'could be anything' bracket before the race after his beginners chase result, and after this performance, still could be anything! What he does look though is top class, but how good and over what optimum trip we are yet to discover. His past 3 victories have come at a combined total of 25 lengths, looking like there's plenty left in the tank. His trainer has indicated the Arkle could be his port of call in March, but there are several other races in the pipeline. If he was to go for the Arkle though it really would be a race to savour - Simonsig, Overturn and now Arvika Ligeonniere as the first three in the market, not to mention Captain Conan, Sire De Grugy and others. What a race! It certainly makes up for last year's small field!
Arkle 8/1 Bet365, BlueSq, Stan James, 888sport, Coral; Jewson Novices Chase 12/1 Bet365; RSA Chase 14/1 Sportingbet, Paddy Power, Stan James
Bobs Worth - justified Hennessey favouritism to win at Newbury. It was a great performance and certainly shows he will be a player in this year's Gold Cup. I am trying to take a balanced approach to this, as I don't particularly like the horse as he doesn't excite me, and of course I'm already in with Sir Des Champs; but he certainly warrants respect as the trip will suit and he loves Cheltenham. However his three and a quarter length defeat of Tidal Bay who was conceding 6 pounds shows he is not bombproof and will give Nicholls an idea of where he rates with Silviniaco Conti, and I also like the proximity of First Lieutenant who represents the same connections as Sir Des Champs.
5/1 Sky Bet, Boylesports, BlueSq, 888sport, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill (3/12/2012)
Tidal Bay - deserves a mention as although he's likely to be the oldest runner of the feature race by March, he is the one who I fear most to trouble the young chasers. I would have fancied him in the Betfair Chase had he raced, he stays all day and has shown there's life in him yet at this level. I will certainly be putting a place bet on him if he lines up in March
20/1 Totesport, Betfred, Sportingbet, BlueSq, Stan James, 888sport, Coral (3/12/2012)
Another whose Cheltenham target has been thrown up in the air with Big Buck's withdrawal. I think he would have a tremendous chance of winning and think it looks a great race for him. However he really performed well in the Hennessey and I expect if he runs well in the Lexus he will be Gold Cup bound. With that in mind however I'm placing a cheeky small bet on him for the World Hurdle in anticipation of not running as well as hoped in Ireland.
World Hurlde 20/1 Stan James; Gold Cup 20/1 Totesport, Betfred, Betvictor, Blue Sq, Stan James, 888sport, Coral (18/12/2012)
Countrywide Flame - built on the promise he showed in his Juvenile season to take the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. He was always going to be able to cope with the soft conditions underfoot that day, but let's not forget, he was a very good winner of the Triumph hurdle last year and performed admirably in the Cesarewitch. He is always going to be a factor when stamina comes into play so although I wouldn't suggest lumping on him now for the Champion Hurdle, if the going is soft, or if they go off at some pace like last year, he has to be considered.
12/1 Sky Bet, Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Ladbrokes, William Hill (3/12/2012)
Cinders And Ashes - his trainer blamed the soft ground after his defeat to Countrywide Flame, but I don't know how much I agree with that. He won 3 times last year on soft or heavy, beating genuine soft ground perfomers Double Ross and Ile De Re with ease. I think he was vulnerable first time out, and where I agree the soft ground harmed him is that it will have helped put the race in his opponent's favour. It would be foolish to discount him from the Champion Hurdle on this run but I think it helps to emphasise that there are better horses in the race if the ground is good, and if it comes up soft he's already been beaten by one who will renew rivalries.
16/1 Boylesports, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill (3/12/2012)
Jezki - put up a very good display to overturn bumper form with Champagne Fever and land the Royal Bond Hurdle. He received what may have ultimately have been a crucial 3 pounds that day, and if Willie Mullins' horse is to be campaigned over further I'm not sure whether his swift move to the head of the Supreme Novices' market is something I agree with; but at the moment he has the best form on offer.
12/1 Labrokes (3/12/2012)
Champagne Fever - thought he would have enough to confirm form with Jezki but clearly needs further than 2 miles now he's hurdling. The obvious targets are the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett and given how he may be crying out for the extra trip, his defeat at Fairyhouse could ultimately look very good come raceday. He remains a major player in either race.
Neptune Novices Hurdle 11/1 Paddy Power; Albert Bartlett Hurdle 14/1 Bet365, Paddy Power (3/12/2012)
Zaidpour - has become the latest horse to be put forward to challenge Big Buck's. His trainer says he has plenty of speed and stamina and if able to combine it perfectly he may be able to usurp the Great One. His win shouldn't have been a shock as he has beaten Voler La Vedette before but his Cheltenham form is what is most worrying for the World Hurdle. His two runs at the track have seen him finish 7th and 8th, so although the step up to 3 miles may be what he needs, it would seemingly be a big ask at this stage.
20/1 Sportingbet, Betvictor, Coral (3/12/2012)
Monksland - I like this horse, but in terms of what he would race in at Cheltenham he looks limited to the World Hurdle and whether he's good enough is debatable. We've yet to see if he stays 3 miles but he is entitled to progress as he is so young. I'm just slightly worried he could end up being a bit like Oscar Whisky and the Aintree Hurdle could be his big hope for the year; but whether he suits Aintree we have to see.
33/1 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James (3/12/2012)
Voler La Vedette - turned over on debut at 1/7 and another defeat behind Zaidpour. Her trainer has since come out and said she will have a breathing operation and that may do her the world of good. The intermediary trip is meant to be her best which would put her back in Quevega's sighter. They may just fancy taking her on again after the operation rather than attempt to land the World Hurdle. Either way a good run after her operation will be crucial for her to be followed.
World Hurdle 20/1 Sportingbet, Stan James; Mares Hurdle 16/1 Stan James (3/12/2012)
Sprinter Sacre - admittedly jump racing's new superstar should be in the group at the top of the page. About 3 weeks ago I decided it was time to lump on Sprinter Sacre and got involved with him at the Evens and above mark. Along with Big Buck's and Quevega, they form the treble that forms the basis of my antepost betting for the Festival. If there was a chance for him to lose it looked like the Tingle Creek would be it, but the way he demolished the field, again, has made him virtually unbeatable in my mind. The only way I see him losing the Champion Chase is if he doesn't finish the race, otherwise it's his for the taking.
4/7 Boylesports (10/12/2012)
Sanctuaire - now that he's taken on Sprinter Sacre and come up short, I reckon a lot of work will go on at home in attempting to get the horse to settle better so that they can have some control as to how he starts the race. If he could lead but not with the over-exuberance that was witnessed at Sandown, he may have a chance at having more in the tank at the end of the race. However, his rival was never off the bridle, and it would take something monumental to overturn the form, not to mention he would have to perform well at Cheltenham which he hasn't done since cruising up in the Fred Winter in 2010.
16/1 Stan James, William Hill (10/12/2012)
Kentford Grey Lady - an early look at one of the horses attempting to usurp Quevega. She was my successful forecast pick last year and showed she has a good chance of being the super mare's number one rival again. She conceded a stone to nearly all rivals and won well, believing she probably had enough to deal with Justazippy who fell at the last. Definite place claims for the mares race.
14/1 Betvictor, William Hill (10/12/2012)
Days Hotel - a really interesting candidate, it's a shame he's probably going to face Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase. He's made a really striking impression since going chasing with 3 wins out of 3 and must have a great each way chance if he lines up for that race.
16/1 Bet365, Stan James, Coral (10/12/2012)
Grandouet - certainly a live Champion Hurdle player, he has always been held in high regard by Henderson and his 2 length defeat to Zarkandar first time out whilst conceding 4 pounds has to be seen as very promising. If you're a fan of his then you will only be further convinced the title is his for the taking in March, but I'm still a huge Zarkandar fan.
7/1 Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Betvictor, Paddy Power, Coral, William Hill (18/12/2012)
Coneygree - stayed on strongly up the hill to forge clear for the second time at Cheltenham to show he clearly enjoys a real stamina test and the Prestbury Park track. He has to be considered for the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett but is another who needs to show faster ground would not be to his detriment. I'm hopeful though he can do so and he looks a nice ante post selection, with preference for the Albert Bartlett rather than the Neptune.
Albert Bartlett 12/1 Ladbrokes; Neptune 16/1 Sky Bet, Boylesports, Stan James, Ladbrokes (18/12/2012)
Pont Alexandre - Don Cossack's conqueror, he is another S Ricci owned, Mullins trained horse who has sprung onto the scene and warrants maximum respect. It's unclear at this stage what his likely Festival target would be as he won over two and a half miles and didn't look like he reached his limit.
Albert Bartlett 8/1 Bet365, Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Ladbrokes; Neptune 8/1 Bet365, Sky Bet, Ladbrokes, William Hill (18/12/2012)
Reve De Sivola - the first to stamp a real claim to the World Hurlde crown with victory in the Long Walk Hurdle. He had previously finished 2nd behind Big Buck's at Newbury and reiterated that he's a much more serious opposition back over hurdles. Best to deal with the heavy conditions that day, I don't think he'd need it so soft at the Festival to make his mark and his Cheltenham record is very good also. Big player.
12/1 Bet 365, Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Ladbrokes (26/12/2012)
Simonsig - could hardly have impressed more on his fencing debut at Ascot even if it did turn into a schooling session with some early fallers. He was extremely exuberant over his fences, giving them plenty of room and suggesting he really will come on for the switch. The only thing that concerns me is the drop to 2 miles as I don't understand why he's not raced over it before, but ultimately he does remind of Sprinter Sacre and he is a worthy Arkle favourite.
9/4 Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Sportingbet, BlueSq, Stan James, 888sport, William Hill (26/12/2012)
Puffin Billy - got better as the race went on at Ascot to make it an unbeaten 4 under rules. His trainer can't speak in high enough terms about the horse and whatever Festival race he goes for, Supreme or Neptune depending on ground, then he rates a huge player; although we are yet to see him race at somewhere like Cheltenham. You would think he would ultimately go for the Neptune if we were to get our usual decent Festival ground.
Supreme Novice 11/1 Paddy Power; Neptune 12/1 Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Stan James (26/12/2012)
Here's to a profitable Cheltenham!
The Horse Whisperer
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