4th October 2012

Yesterday brought with it more Arc excitement with rumours flying around in the morning that Danedream could be supplemented for the race today. Supposedly, the quarantine at the Cologne track was going to be lifted as the horse infected with swamp fever died months ago. The Betfair market saw a surge in activity with £80 matched at 1000 before crashing into 10s. By the afternoon however the rumours were quickly quashed and I'm sure a few layers would have been chuckling to themselves. What was confirmed however was Camelot's appearance with Dettori taking the ride with Joseph O'Brien unable to make the weight for Camelot. It looks a match made in heaven, with the great horse and the great man, and it's helpful for Ballydoyle as it means they can avoid Joseph's association with the horse since the blame some place with him for Camelot's St Leger defeat. However for me, the horse didn't look right that day, and I do not blame Joseph for its defeat. If you watch the horse in the Derby here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkwjmGYGgy8 and compare it to the Leger in this video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37TedwNa4fg you can see the horse is carrying itself completely differently. He almost looks a dressage horse in the Derby and his low head in the Leger comparatively looks distressing. But to prevent questions from those who blame Joseph, and to no doubt to protect him, it is convenient to say he can't make the weight. In terms of the betting, the Frankie factor will really ensure the Orfevre/Camelot duel for favouritism will be intense but as stated all week I still have my doubts and will be looking elsewhere.

To tomorrow's racing, and it looks an average day. Not such a problem, nor a surprise, with the top class racing at the weekend and again I'd advise saving those pennies. But for those interested here's one.

16.40 Warwick (***UPDATED***)

There may be 17 runners in this affair, but the two to concentrate on have to be FENNELL BAY and Debating Society who come out well at the weights. The selection should thoroughly enjoy this drop in grade after racing in some of the stronger handicaps this season, and there are no concerns over the trip or conditions. Top weight is always a burden to carry, but it doesn't seem beyond him here. His main rival is progressing nicely but his form on soft ground is mixed and that factor should ensure Johnston's horse is favoured. Of the others, Enriching arrives seeking a four timer, but the going is again a concern. Three other horses who stand out from a prior run at Kempton are Spin Cast, My Mate Jake and Mcbirney. The latter find himself on the receiving end of an 8 pound reversal in the weights with the winner Spin Cast which will certainly be needed to make up on an almost 9 length defeat. Second that day by less than a length, My Mate Jake, receives a further 2 pounds from the winner and is 6 pounds worse off with Mcbirney. On those bare figures alone you would have to fancy My Mate Jake to prevail out of the three with a similar run, especially if he settles better which should allow him to see out the 10 furlongs in a stronger manner. The others have such a mixed bag of form, that if one of them were to win it would seemingly be a flash in the pan. The selection has at least shown some degree of consistency and is therefore preferred. 8/1

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer