Well, the big race is finally here and after a week’s umming
and ahhing over the weather we still don’t really know what conditions the
horses will face underfoot. The general consensus seems to be soft, good-soft
in places but I’m sure it’s going to be testing ground either way after another
day’s racing and with 2 chase races before the big event. With that in mind her
e is a brief runner by runner guide with my views on the race. Of course you
are entitled to disagree and even encouraged to! This game is all about opinions
and as Ladbrokes say, what’s yours worth?
TIDAL BAY – I think he’s in with a real chance despite
top weight. Nicholls has seemed to have worked out the best way to deal with him
and his proven stamina as well as class will put him in with a chance here. I
would have fancied him in the Betfair Chase if he had turned up, so do not feel
this to be beyond him at all. Live each way player.
ROBERTO GOLDBACK – although not far behind Tidal Bay in
the ratings and even with a handy claimer on board, I’m not as keen on the
chances of Henderson’s second string. He goes on testing ground but in recent
years has performed better with firmer going and he took advantage of a reduced
mark last time out to win. Faced with a big hike for that, I’m not sure he’s as
capable of winning again.
BOBS WORTH – the favourite and deservedly so, I do think
he is slightly vulnerable first time out and on what I’m hoping will be testing
ground. He should have no concerns with the trip, but he faces some on form
race fit rivals and has to concede plenty of weight to some well handicapped
horses. Although he’s destined for bigger things this season, we see plenty of very
good horses come undone in handicap
company, and I think we may see something similar with Bobs Worth.
FIRST LIEUTENANT – as I’ve stated before, his entry has
puzzled me all week, but clearly his trainer thinks he has decent ground; or he
needs a run and the ground is better here than back in Ireland. Either way he
seems to have a bit to find with the favourite to reverse RSA form over a trip
that should favour his opponent more and instead I would look to see where he
races over the Christmas period.
HOLD ON JULIO – a big run is expected from Alan King’s
hope for the race, and his prep run at Cheltenham will have him right for this.
There are just a few question marks for me though that put me off. We’re yet to
see how well he encounters ground as testing as this and he races off a career
high mark, although his last run suggested he has improved this season so he
may be able to cope with it. He's also lightly raced so is entitled to improve. Overall he has a likeable profile but when it
comes down to your last few horses and you have to narrow them down, I find
myself choosing other similar types over him. A bold run expected but others
excite me more.
LION NA BEARNAI – a stayer through and through, winner of
the Irish Grand National when we last saw him, there’s no doubt he has a chance
here and he’s no stranger to winning at big odds. But I don’t like how he doesn’t
come here without a prep run. His record first time out for a season doesn’t bode
well and is enough to put me off him here. I think connections will have seen
this as a big prize they could go for after winning such a prestigious race in
Ireland, but there would have been no harm in a run to sharpen him up, even
over hurdles if necessary.
CARRUTHERS – I got involved early with Carruthers at 33/1
because at that price I thought he was a great each way proposition. It’s hard
to know what to make of him though as since his win last year, he’s shown
little form, but his run up to the race last year wasn’t mindblowing anyway. He’s
clearly been aimed at this all year, and has followed a similar route to last
season with his prep run at Cheltenham. Although not performing as well, he had
to carry top weight that day against some well handicapped rivals, around a
course he clearly doesn’t like. Newbury on the other hand is his home, and off
only a 1 pound higher mark this year he has to have a chance if on form.
THE PACKAGE – another with a good chance who again took
advantage of a reduced mark to win well last time; he should have no problem
seeing out the trip but he usually performs best with a bit more time between
his races. His hold up tactics are also inconsistent with the usual winner of
this race, a front running sort, but with Timmy Murphy in the saddle he
arguably has the best man in charge to win with those tactics. It may though
end in a similar manner to Great Endeavour last year however, running late into
a place.
TEAFORTHREE – I’m a huge fan of Rebecca Curtis’ gelding,
but again feel this is another race on his way to Welsh National success. It’s
a perfect prep run for that race in a month’s time against some good opposition
in testing conditions and I get the feeling he’s here to win if it all falls
into place. The Champ though I’m sure will try to get all out of him, but I
just think others will be more tuned up for this than him.
FRUITY O’ROONEY – when I was talking about cutting the
final few horses out and found others more favourable than Hold On Julio, this
is who I had in mind. He’s been aimed at the race, may find this trip spot on
for him and his prep run can be seen as similar to Carruthers’. He’s also arguably well handicapped in
comparison to The Package and this mark is well within his range. A bold
showing is expected and he is another live each way player.
SAINT ARE – another who I think rates a decent chance,
the last time he faced Bobs Worth he was slammed over hurdles but had to concede
4 pounds that day. He comes into the race after a long break having been last
seen at Aintree winning. Admittedly the form of that race hasn’t worked out too
well, but he’s been aimed at this since then and been kept fresh on purpose.
DUKE OF LUCCA – his form entitles him to a good run here
but he doesn’t excite me that much, and he was accounted for pretty strongly by
Roberto Goldback last time out. Although he receives a help in the weights
today, I think a few others look set to outperform him off similar marks.
DIAMOND HARRY – another former winner, he’ll certainly
have his backers off such a low mark but he’s shown very little in recent races
to show he is up to winning anything like this. He is not the same horse that
won this 2 years ago and although this may come back to haunt me, I’m more than
happy to take him on.
MAGNAMINITY – another who I’m very happy to take on, he
hasn’t shown much in small fields recently and seems to be missing the battling
quality that he used to possess. I can see him folding quite tamely again here.
There was talk of him being aimed at a confidence winning win at Thurles, so
the fact he has been entered here is strange.
HARRY THE VIKING – his poor performance last time out was
worrying seeing as he runs so well fresh and another with long term targets I
can easily discard him.
IKORODU ROAD – he may be a course and distance winner,
but I think it would take something special for him to counter this joint
career high mark. Another easy one to overlook.
FRISCO DEPOT – a very interesting runner, he was going
very well before falling in the race Roberto Goldback went on to win. It was a
nasty fall and sometimes it takes a horse a while to get over that, but he’s
off a very likable mark, with a claimer and he has to pose a threat. The jury
on Sam Waley-Cohen is still out and you’re either a fan or not. He wouldn’t be
my first choice for a jockey, but he should have enough about him to steer
Frisco Depot round here.
SOLL – plenty of talk for this horse who many feel is
overpriced and would be half the odds if he was still with Willie Mullins. It
wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he won, and there’s little in his form to
say he doesn’t have a chance, but at the same time it doesn’t stand out and
scream at you as much as others. He should outrun his odds, but whether he’s
capable of making the places we don’t know. A mystery until we see him run.
ALFIE SPINNER – another at the bottom of the racecard who
should have no doubt seeing out the trip and handling the conditions. He raced
in some really good races last year and performed with credit and rates another
good each way chance.
Final list – Tidal Bay, Carruthers, Fruity O’Rooney, Frisco
Depot, Alfie Spinner
I’m already in with Carruthers, and when looking for a
second bet in the race will side with Fruity O’Rooney. Tidal Bay may just
struggle to concede weight to these well handicapped rivals, Frisco Depot needs
to respond from a crashing fall, and Alfie Spinner may find a couple too strong
again.
Good luck!
The Horse Whisperer
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