Hello everyone,
It is with regret that I have to inform you that I will be unable to continue this blog for the foreseeable future. The start of the new year has brought with it massive changes in my personal life, including a change of location and the start of a new job.
Unfortunately, the time consuming nature of what is to come ensures that I will not be able to continue giving the time and effort required to fairly put my opinions out to the general public; and it would be wrong of me to do so for those who rely on them.
I can only thank everyone who has taken the time to follow this blog on here and via Twitter and make it a wholly enjoyable experience for 3 and a half months.
The breakdowns for results up until now were:
Month 1 - September 10th to October 9th 2012: 100 Tips, 21 winners, 1 each way place win
Month 2 - October 10th to November 8th 2012: 102 Tips, 36 winners, 6 each way place win
Month 3 - 9th November to December 12th 2012: 102 Tips, 32 winners
Month 4 - 9th December 2012 to January 2nd 2013: 70 Tips, 32 winners
Thank you once again for the time you have taken to read these posts and for any input on Twitter.
Good luck with your future bets!
The Horse Whisperer
Wednesday 2 January 2013
Saturday 29 December 2012
Friday 28 December 2012
29th December 2012
Full previews to come
Leopardstown
13.30 Lord Windermere
14.00 Hurricane Fly 1/3 several
Newbury
13.35 Bury Parade 7/2 Sky Bet
14.10 Pete The Feat 11/4 Sky Bet, Stan James
14.45 Easter Day 4/1 Bet365, Paddy Power
15.15 Salubrious 3/1 Totesport, Betfred
15.50 My Tent Or Yours
Good luck!
The Horse Whisperer
Thursday 27 December 2012
28th December 2012
The Winter Festival meeting at Kempton finished yesterday, and as always some big performances were witnessed on the way to Cheltenham. Simonsig, Darlan and Dynaste all significantly enhanced their reputations whilst Menorah and Sanctuaire also showed there's life left in their claims. Full updates as always to come on Cheltenham Watch 2013. The day also saw Jezki and Sizing Europe win in Ireland, and the Leopardstown meeting continues with 'The Clash Of The Titans: Take 2' as I'm dubbing it the focus today.
13.25 Leopardstown
The big three from the Hatton's Grace Hurdle renew rivalries, with Zaidpour, Voler La Vedette and MONKSLAND all in attendance. The former was a fair winner that day and chalked up respectable quotes for the World Hurdle in light of it at the time. He has already beaten Colm Murphy's mare over 3 miles and whilst she will have her supporters, she doesn't look the same animal this year and is again overlooked. However the step up to 3 miles is expected to suit the selection and bring about further improvement from the young gelding to reverse the form. He rates the value bet in the race, and although I'm not advising him each way, if you can get over 5/1 on the horse, it seems silly not to take it as it's hard to see him being out the top 3. So Young would have to reverse form with all 3 to land this and doesn't look likely to do that. The really intriguing entry is Weapon's Amnesty, returning from over 1000 days off the track, last seen winning the RSA Chase. He's clearly using this as an opener for a season back over fences, but it will be very interesting to see how he fares again to then determine what his potential targets are. He could be worth a place bet. 11/2 Paddy Power, Sky Bet
14.25 Leopardstown
A really cracking renewal of the Novices Chase and there are plenty in with a chance. Willie Mullins saddles two runners in a bid to finally land this prize, and both have claims. Aupcharlie made his successful debut over fences but Back In Focus has always been seen as his trainer's bigger hope in this division and beat a good yardstick in today's rival Lyreen Legend to confirm his promise. Of the two Mullins' horses he is the most favoured, but the field is full of chances and the Gigginstown pair can't be ignored. Tofino Bay may be the second string on jockey bookings, but he is the higher rated horse and enjoyed the step up to 3 miles to win last time out. However it would be almost impossible for the step up in trip today to not bring about improvement from DEDIGOUT. Hammered by Arvika Liegonniere the same day Monksland last raced, he gave his victor far too much room there and with a completely different race this time he is far more likely to succeed. Mount Benbulben also can't be easily dismissed with the step up again likely to enhance his chances. 7/2 Paddy Power, Bet365
15.00 Leopardstown
A truly epic race, with enough strength and depth to rival the King George. Obviously though the attentions come down to Flemenstar and SIR DES CHAMPS, but the other horses need a quick word also. China Rock is in good form according to his trainer, but faces a big task first time out. First Lieutenant will be more suited to today's 24 furlong trip than the Hennessey's extended 26 and is clearly a classy horse, but will hopefully merely be part of a way of demonstrating how the selection can get past Bobs Worth in March. Hidden Cyclone has only been beaten twice in his career, but that was against two of today's rivals including the selection who had to concede 5 pounds that day, and will struggle to reverse form. Pandorama was very well regarded a couple of seasons ago, winning this race on a good run of form, but hasn't been seen since coming 7th in the Gold Cup and is merely watched to see how he reappears. Midnight Chase is always fancied around Prestbury Park and may struggle here, but can act as a further way of comparing form to likely Gold Cup contenders and finally, whilst Tidal Bay is expected to run well, and really give the main two something to think about, they should have enough to beat him and I'm hoping the result becomes enough to convince Nicholls' to send him to the World Hurdle rather than the Gold Cup. This leaves us with the two at the head of the betting, and whilst Flemenstar was impressive when winning the John Durkan, there's no doubt in my mind that Sir Des Champs can return the form. It's not so much the step up to 3 miles that will hamper Flemenstar's chance, in fact I think he should get it easy enough, but rather he now faces a race fit rival, and the John Durkan will have been about getting Sir Des Champs ready for this race. He should be primed and ready to go and should lay down a big marker for the Gold Cup here. His connections also know this is arguably make or break for him and anything less than victory would be a blow to them. 3/1 Sky Bet, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, 888sport, William Hill
Good luck!
The Horse Whisperer
13.25 Leopardstown
The big three from the Hatton's Grace Hurdle renew rivalries, with Zaidpour, Voler La Vedette and MONKSLAND all in attendance. The former was a fair winner that day and chalked up respectable quotes for the World Hurdle in light of it at the time. He has already beaten Colm Murphy's mare over 3 miles and whilst she will have her supporters, she doesn't look the same animal this year and is again overlooked. However the step up to 3 miles is expected to suit the selection and bring about further improvement from the young gelding to reverse the form. He rates the value bet in the race, and although I'm not advising him each way, if you can get over 5/1 on the horse, it seems silly not to take it as it's hard to see him being out the top 3. So Young would have to reverse form with all 3 to land this and doesn't look likely to do that. The really intriguing entry is Weapon's Amnesty, returning from over 1000 days off the track, last seen winning the RSA Chase. He's clearly using this as an opener for a season back over fences, but it will be very interesting to see how he fares again to then determine what his potential targets are. He could be worth a place bet. 11/2 Paddy Power, Sky Bet
14.25 Leopardstown
A really cracking renewal of the Novices Chase and there are plenty in with a chance. Willie Mullins saddles two runners in a bid to finally land this prize, and both have claims. Aupcharlie made his successful debut over fences but Back In Focus has always been seen as his trainer's bigger hope in this division and beat a good yardstick in today's rival Lyreen Legend to confirm his promise. Of the two Mullins' horses he is the most favoured, but the field is full of chances and the Gigginstown pair can't be ignored. Tofino Bay may be the second string on jockey bookings, but he is the higher rated horse and enjoyed the step up to 3 miles to win last time out. However it would be almost impossible for the step up in trip today to not bring about improvement from DEDIGOUT. Hammered by Arvika Liegonniere the same day Monksland last raced, he gave his victor far too much room there and with a completely different race this time he is far more likely to succeed. Mount Benbulben also can't be easily dismissed with the step up again likely to enhance his chances. 7/2 Paddy Power, Bet365
15.00 Leopardstown
A truly epic race, with enough strength and depth to rival the King George. Obviously though the attentions come down to Flemenstar and SIR DES CHAMPS, but the other horses need a quick word also. China Rock is in good form according to his trainer, but faces a big task first time out. First Lieutenant will be more suited to today's 24 furlong trip than the Hennessey's extended 26 and is clearly a classy horse, but will hopefully merely be part of a way of demonstrating how the selection can get past Bobs Worth in March. Hidden Cyclone has only been beaten twice in his career, but that was against two of today's rivals including the selection who had to concede 5 pounds that day, and will struggle to reverse form. Pandorama was very well regarded a couple of seasons ago, winning this race on a good run of form, but hasn't been seen since coming 7th in the Gold Cup and is merely watched to see how he reappears. Midnight Chase is always fancied around Prestbury Park and may struggle here, but can act as a further way of comparing form to likely Gold Cup contenders and finally, whilst Tidal Bay is expected to run well, and really give the main two something to think about, they should have enough to beat him and I'm hoping the result becomes enough to convince Nicholls' to send him to the World Hurdle rather than the Gold Cup. This leaves us with the two at the head of the betting, and whilst Flemenstar was impressive when winning the John Durkan, there's no doubt in my mind that Sir Des Champs can return the form. It's not so much the step up to 3 miles that will hamper Flemenstar's chance, in fact I think he should get it easy enough, but rather he now faces a race fit rival, and the John Durkan will have been about getting Sir Des Champs ready for this race. He should be primed and ready to go and should lay down a big marker for the Gold Cup here. His connections also know this is arguably make or break for him and anything less than victory would be a blow to them. 3/1 Sky Bet, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, 888sport, William Hill
Good luck!
The Horse Whisperer
Wednesday 26 December 2012
27th December 2012
12.55 Kempton
SIMONSIG looks unopposable in this field. 2/9 William Hill
14.05 Kempton
FOR NON STOP is the pick after bypassing the King George. Hunt Ball doesn't appeal on the ground and the selection is the most consistent. 9/4 Coral, Ladbrokes
14.40 Kempton
SANCTUAIRE deserves to be odds against and possibly has some questions to answer. Nicholls is slightly reserved about his chance but it would be a fall from grace if he was unable to win here. He should take this. 5/4 William Hill
13.25 Leopardstown
SIZING EUROPE again after bypassing the King George in preference of this he looks unopposable. 1/2 William Hill
14.00 Leopardstown
WAAHEB should make AP's trip to Ireland a profitable. He's been excited about this horse all season, and although up against some serious opposition today, he has the talent to be involved and leave his mark here. 11/4 Boylesports
Good luck!
The Horse Whisperer
SIMONSIG looks unopposable in this field. 2/9 William Hill
14.05 Kempton
FOR NON STOP is the pick after bypassing the King George. Hunt Ball doesn't appeal on the ground and the selection is the most consistent. 9/4 Coral, Ladbrokes
14.40 Kempton
SANCTUAIRE deserves to be odds against and possibly has some questions to answer. Nicholls is slightly reserved about his chance but it would be a fall from grace if he was unable to win here. He should take this. 5/4 William Hill
13.25 Leopardstown
SIZING EUROPE again after bypassing the King George in preference of this he looks unopposable. 1/2 William Hill
14.00 Leopardstown
WAAHEB should make AP's trip to Ireland a profitable. He's been excited about this horse all season, and although up against some serious opposition today, he has the talent to be involved and leave his mark here. 11/4 Boylesports
Good luck!
The Horse Whisperer
Monday 24 December 2012
26th December 2012
Boxing Day is one of the highlights of the jumps season calendars, with several meetings on both sides of the Irish Sea. With the racing coming up and markets available with most bookmakers, here are the selections for the races that will eventually be previewed and found on here.
12.50 Kempton
A decent Novices' hurdle to open the card, it looks set to come down to one of the market principals with RIVER MAIGUE, New Year's Eve and Spirit Of Shankly the most likely winners. The selection is clearly held in high regard by his trainer, who felt he was talented enough to throw into a Grade 2 on his hurdling debut, and he didn't disappoint finishing only a length off Dodging Bullets. He is entitled to improve, and on that basis alone is hard to look past here. New Year's Eve was second in last year's Champion Bumper, and the form of that race is working out well. He would certainly be something special to win this first time out but a good run is expected with his trainer always respected. The final highlighted horse has been advised on a couple of occasions now but doesn't seem up to the task of beating the selection here. 5/4 Stan James, Paddy Power, Sky Bet
14.00 Kempton
It would have taken something truly special for this year's renewal of the Feltham to overshadow last year's event where Grands Crus, Silviniaco Conti, Bobs Worth & Teaforthree all ran; however the 2012 edition should hopefully help to further enhance the reputation of one extremely promising chaser in DYNASTE. Seen as a threat to Big Buck's last year before being comprehensively accounted for on a couple of occasions, he has flourished since switching to fences, already beating Fingal Bay and Unioniste in an impressive way at Cheltenham, the latter going on to land the December Gold Cup, before beating Court In Motion in an even better manner, who again went on to win. He is already rated 161 over fences, at least 16 pounds clear of his rivals in this race and he is unopposable. He rates a worthy favourite for the RSA and can be expected to enhance his claims for that race today. The only slight concern is about the soft ground as the last time he faced anything this soft he came up short at Ascot in the Lough Derg Long Walk Hurdle, but his early exertions in trying to get Big Buck's off the bridle may have caused that. Dynaste's opposition shouldn't be underestimated though and all have the scope to improve. Poungach in particular has drawn admirers as he begins to get to grips with the chasing division, whilst it can't be denied that Hadrian's Approach , Molotof, Theatre Guide and Third Intention are all decent novice chasing prospects. Lovcen finally makes the switch to fences after struggling off top weight in handicaps to break into the places, but he has been running well and will make an impact in this sphere; he would prefer firmer ground though. 4/7 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power
14.35 Kempton
The Christmas Hurdle is trying its hardest to give the King George a run for its money in terms of quality with several of the top 2 milers on show. Last year's Supreme Novice winner Cinders And Ashes looks to make up for disappointing in the Fighting Fifth but it looks a big task for him. Despite winning several times in tough conditions last year, his trainer blamed the soft ground for his poor performance on his reappearance, and with conqueror that day Countrywide Flame renewing rivalries, and with the going still tough, there seems little reason to see him overturning the form today, even with the run under his belt. Countrywide Flame continues to go from strength to strength, and really should be the selection here. He is race fit, handles the going and has the ability to land this, but I'm taking a chance that DARLAN is as good as I hope and that he is a Champion Hurdler in the making. I was so taken by him at Aintree last season that he became my antepost bet for the main event in March there and then. His trainer has said before that Kempton will be as soft as he can probably handle, especially on his first run, and connections certainly won't be disappointed with a good run in defeat, but he undoubtedly has bags of talent and has always caught the eye. The race is not limited to these three either with Dodging Bullets another who has improved this season, and could have his form franked by River Maigue in the first. Eligible for the Supreme Novice this year on account of not winning last season, he has a bit to find to reverse form with his Triumph Hurdle conqueror, but does appeal more than Cinders And Ashes. The McManus second string Get Me Out Of Here on bare form looks a massive price but has shown a couple of times now that soft ground is not his friend and he may ultimately be here to assist Darlan. Raya Star is no pushover either and his performances warrant a crack at Grade 1 level. On ratings he is ahead of several of these, but the others are certainly open to vast improvement. Finally it's great to see Punjabi back on the racetrack after an extremely long break. It will be interesting to how far off his 2009 Champion Hurdle winning form he is. 4/1 Stan James
15.10 Kempton
One of the highlights of the National Hunt season, the King George this year in particular looks to have real strength and depth to it. Whilst Captain Chris, Champion Court, For Non Stop and Junior are all good horses in their own right, with the latter supplemented at a large cost into the race, they are respectfully overlooked because of the strength of the other horses. Grands Crus returns after flopping when favourite in the Paddy Power Gold Cup to the scene of his immense Feltham win, ran in a quicker time than Kauto Star's 5th King George later that day. Whilst breathing operations have reportedly helped many horses, this looks a huge ask on his first run since then and he is overlooked. I was a massive fan of the horse last year, and think he is a very dangerous opponent in this race, but I can't put my hand in my pocket just yet and back him until we see whether he's back to where he was this time last year. We then come to the real crux of the race, with Long Run currently favourite and likely to shorten in the market as we get nearer to post time. He has proven stamina and is of course a former winner of the race, and this all bodes well, but as much as this prediction may come back to haunt me, this race may just be the first time in his career that he finishes outside the places. I think he needs a real stamina test these days to have the edge over his opponents, and whilst the race is going to be no walk in the park, I don't think it will be beyond his rivals and when you add to that his sketchy jumping and I'm happy to take him on. For the value I'm also going to lay him for a place. Riverside Theatre, his stablemate, is consequently seen by many as the likely winner and again he has an impeccable record. The race has been his target for this season, kept fresh on purpose as he runs well after an absence and further assisted by Geraghty in the saddle. Whilst the horse is not a favourite of mine, it would be foolish to discount his chances and he must rate a big threat. The fact this is his season goal as well means he is going to be primed for it and he has to be one of the placed horses. He has form on soft ground but against inferior opposition, so that may just account for his chance to win. The Giant Bolster is another who has been working towards this target, but ultimately his goal will again be the Gold Cup. His normal partner Tom Scudamore rides Grands Crus, which means the Champ picks up a great spare ride and you can be sure he'll be doing all he can to ensure the horse wins. I have enormous respect for David Bridgwater and what he has done with The Giant Bolster, but I think he is very closely matched to Long Run these days and ultimately can see a few others finishing ahead of him as again he seems better on a sounder surface. That leaves us with Kauto Stone and CUE CARD to fill the top two. The former was really good when winning at Down Royal, beating First Lieutenant who has since gone on to finish third in the Hennessey. That's no mean feat and today's 3 mile trip in soft ground will certainly play to his strengths. He may have originally been seen as Nicholls' second string in this event, but he warrants respect and is a player here. I've seen many opinions who think he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as some of his opposition, but there's plenty to like about him in principal, and his form gives him a line through to Bobs Worth who at the moment is a deserved Gold Cup favourite. However my pick is a slight chance on Cue Card. I say slight because whilst it is true he hasn't raced at 3 miles before, I'm not particularly concerned and feel this trip is well within his compass. His breeding oozes stamina, and ever since he came onto the scene his connections have always viewed and talked about him as a Gold Cup horse. Whilst I'm not sure if I'm on that bandwagon just yet, you don't speak in those terms if there's a doubt the horse would get 3 miles in soft at Kempton. His form also reads tremendously, getting as close as possible to Sprinter Sacre over what would arguably be an inadequate trip, coming within a short head of Bobs Worth when conceding 7 pounds, and a wonderful reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup. He also has soft ground form and will be leading the race, which I always like to see in tough conditions. I think he will be hard to peg back and was always my worry in this race when I was on Al Ferof. 6/1 Bet365, Betvictor, William Hill
13.20 Leopardstown
There were doubts over Our Conor's participation in the race yesterday which would have made this a far easier task for BLOOD COTIL, but even if both line up, Willie Mullins' horse is taken to land this. Both figure prominently in the Triumph market and have been impressive, but the 3 pounds the selection receives may just prove decisive. 6/4 Totesport, Betfred
14.55 Leopardstown
The main race of the day from Ireland, a case could be made for all the runners but this looks set to be a head to head between ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE and Oscars Well. The pair have been ultra impressive since switching to fences, with the selection narrowly preferred for the way he hammered Dedigout. He made all that day, going clear early on and never getting pegged back and I expect similar tactics will be employed to great effect today. He clearly has the stamina for a strongly run 2 miles, and whilst Oscars Well is certainly capable of keeping up with him, his past form over hurdles suggests that if the race was run in this way, he wouldn't see it out as well as his opponent. It's also good to hear that usual partner Ruby Walsh rates him so highly that the only reason he's not on board is because of the King George at Kempton. As stated, Benefficient, Baily Green and Dylan Ross are all good horses themselves, but these two are deservedly being spoken about in terms of challenging for the Arkle and it's a mouthwatering race to watch. 5/6 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James
12.35 Ffos Las
WHISPER has only had the one run under rules, but it was a very taking win over today's venue, beating Cheat The Cheater by 15 lengths who rates a decent enough yardstick this season so far to suggest if running to that level, the selection will be hard to pass. His trainer's attentions may be elsewhere today, but this race will surely have been highlighted as winnable and as long as he jumps soundly, should take all the beating. 8/13 Paddy Power, Coral
15.30 Ffos Las
Mortimers Cross held on well at Kelso 17 days ago to win over 4 miles, and it seems a big ask for him to follow up today after such a short time to recover. He has the help of his claimer, but so does course and distance winner Benheir and CARRUTHERS, who's jockey in particular has begun to make a name for himself with some very good performances on Petit Robin. His talent will be a big help to the Lord Oaksey bred horse who should be well ahead of these if in the mood today after under-performing in the Hennessey last time out. 5/1 Paddy Power
14.15 Wincanton
One of the strangest races of the season, containing 21 runners with 7 representing David Pipe. He's clearly trying to assess the looks of his stable for the handicap hurdle scene and the race is further complicated by the appearance of so many claimers. Ardlui will have plenty of support, with the step up in trip expected to suit and his third behind At Fishers Cross looking better since he ran. However it is hard to get away from some of the Pipe horses and THE PACKAGE and GOULANES stand out, with both advised. The former finished 4th in the Hennessey and races off a much lower mark today then he does over fences. Although stamina is his forte, it's going to be a slog at Wincanton today and he has to be considered. The latter relished the stamina test when winning at Cheltenham 39 days ago, and with his claimer taken into account, actually races off a lower mark than that performance. If you have to plump for one over the other, then at a push I'd choose The Package as he is the classier horse, but they both have an outstanding chance.
14.50 Wincanton
On ratings and form, this looks a good opportunity for ROLLING ACES to follow up on his Newbury win. He showed a really good desire to win that day and the form has only been franked since. He is hard to overlook. 10/11 Sportingbet
12.35 Limerick
This is one of the more speculative selections of the lower class races, but even still a chance is taken on BALLYNACREE to build on last year's promise. His time off the track is not a concern, but Umpact does look to have every chance as well, winning impressively a fortnight ago at Gowran and it should be a good race. 5/1 Stan James, Totesport, Betfred
13.40 Limerick
Another strong favourite who is difficult to overlook; MIKAEL D'HAGUENET finally got the luck he needed to get off the mark over fences at Punchestown and he should make easy enough work of this field. Far Away So Close raced in some tough company last season but doesn't seem to have progressed and the main threat should be Argocat, rated highly by connections and running close to Twinlight, who's form provides a good base to work from. He also receives 11 pounds from the selection which should help make this a close contest but the selection is definitely preferred. 4/9 Bet365, Paddy Power
12.25 Down Royal
SALSIFY and Tammys Hill renew rivalries from 3 weeks ago at Wexford and the former is expected to overturn the form with that run under his belt and likely to be much fitter for it. These hunters chases can often be tricky, but the selection won the main race for these horses at the Festival and certainly seems to retain the ability to say he has a big role to play in all these types of races this season. Viking Splash has on a couple of occasions run reasonably close to Salsify to suggest he is playing for place money again, with Crude, Not Before Eight and Slippers Percy others likely to be involved for third. 9/4 several
UPCOMING
Welsh National (now 5th January) Teaforthree 4/1 Bet365. Boylesports
Dial-a-bet Chase (27th December Leopardstown) Sizing Europe 1/2 Bet365, Paddy Power
Lexus Chase (28th December Leopardstown) Sir Des Champs 3/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James
Istabraq Hurdle (29th December Leopardstown) Hurricane Fly 1/3 Paddy Power
Good luck!
The Horse Whispererz
12.50 Kempton
A decent Novices' hurdle to open the card, it looks set to come down to one of the market principals with RIVER MAIGUE, New Year's Eve and Spirit Of Shankly the most likely winners. The selection is clearly held in high regard by his trainer, who felt he was talented enough to throw into a Grade 2 on his hurdling debut, and he didn't disappoint finishing only a length off Dodging Bullets. He is entitled to improve, and on that basis alone is hard to look past here. New Year's Eve was second in last year's Champion Bumper, and the form of that race is working out well. He would certainly be something special to win this first time out but a good run is expected with his trainer always respected. The final highlighted horse has been advised on a couple of occasions now but doesn't seem up to the task of beating the selection here. 5/4 Stan James, Paddy Power, Sky Bet
14.00 Kempton
It would have taken something truly special for this year's renewal of the Feltham to overshadow last year's event where Grands Crus, Silviniaco Conti, Bobs Worth & Teaforthree all ran; however the 2012 edition should hopefully help to further enhance the reputation of one extremely promising chaser in DYNASTE. Seen as a threat to Big Buck's last year before being comprehensively accounted for on a couple of occasions, he has flourished since switching to fences, already beating Fingal Bay and Unioniste in an impressive way at Cheltenham, the latter going on to land the December Gold Cup, before beating Court In Motion in an even better manner, who again went on to win. He is already rated 161 over fences, at least 16 pounds clear of his rivals in this race and he is unopposable. He rates a worthy favourite for the RSA and can be expected to enhance his claims for that race today. The only slight concern is about the soft ground as the last time he faced anything this soft he came up short at Ascot in the Lough Derg Long Walk Hurdle, but his early exertions in trying to get Big Buck's off the bridle may have caused that. Dynaste's opposition shouldn't be underestimated though and all have the scope to improve. Poungach in particular has drawn admirers as he begins to get to grips with the chasing division, whilst it can't be denied that Hadrian's Approach , Molotof, Theatre Guide and Third Intention are all decent novice chasing prospects. Lovcen finally makes the switch to fences after struggling off top weight in handicaps to break into the places, but he has been running well and will make an impact in this sphere; he would prefer firmer ground though. 4/7 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power
14.35 Kempton
The Christmas Hurdle is trying its hardest to give the King George a run for its money in terms of quality with several of the top 2 milers on show. Last year's Supreme Novice winner Cinders And Ashes looks to make up for disappointing in the Fighting Fifth but it looks a big task for him. Despite winning several times in tough conditions last year, his trainer blamed the soft ground for his poor performance on his reappearance, and with conqueror that day Countrywide Flame renewing rivalries, and with the going still tough, there seems little reason to see him overturning the form today, even with the run under his belt. Countrywide Flame continues to go from strength to strength, and really should be the selection here. He is race fit, handles the going and has the ability to land this, but I'm taking a chance that DARLAN is as good as I hope and that he is a Champion Hurdler in the making. I was so taken by him at Aintree last season that he became my antepost bet for the main event in March there and then. His trainer has said before that Kempton will be as soft as he can probably handle, especially on his first run, and connections certainly won't be disappointed with a good run in defeat, but he undoubtedly has bags of talent and has always caught the eye. The race is not limited to these three either with Dodging Bullets another who has improved this season, and could have his form franked by River Maigue in the first. Eligible for the Supreme Novice this year on account of not winning last season, he has a bit to find to reverse form with his Triumph Hurdle conqueror, but does appeal more than Cinders And Ashes. The McManus second string Get Me Out Of Here on bare form looks a massive price but has shown a couple of times now that soft ground is not his friend and he may ultimately be here to assist Darlan. Raya Star is no pushover either and his performances warrant a crack at Grade 1 level. On ratings he is ahead of several of these, but the others are certainly open to vast improvement. Finally it's great to see Punjabi back on the racetrack after an extremely long break. It will be interesting to how far off his 2009 Champion Hurdle winning form he is. 4/1 Stan James
15.10 Kempton
One of the highlights of the National Hunt season, the King George this year in particular looks to have real strength and depth to it. Whilst Captain Chris, Champion Court, For Non Stop and Junior are all good horses in their own right, with the latter supplemented at a large cost into the race, they are respectfully overlooked because of the strength of the other horses. Grands Crus returns after flopping when favourite in the Paddy Power Gold Cup to the scene of his immense Feltham win, ran in a quicker time than Kauto Star's 5th King George later that day. Whilst breathing operations have reportedly helped many horses, this looks a huge ask on his first run since then and he is overlooked. I was a massive fan of the horse last year, and think he is a very dangerous opponent in this race, but I can't put my hand in my pocket just yet and back him until we see whether he's back to where he was this time last year. We then come to the real crux of the race, with Long Run currently favourite and likely to shorten in the market as we get nearer to post time. He has proven stamina and is of course a former winner of the race, and this all bodes well, but as much as this prediction may come back to haunt me, this race may just be the first time in his career that he finishes outside the places. I think he needs a real stamina test these days to have the edge over his opponents, and whilst the race is going to be no walk in the park, I don't think it will be beyond his rivals and when you add to that his sketchy jumping and I'm happy to take him on. For the value I'm also going to lay him for a place. Riverside Theatre, his stablemate, is consequently seen by many as the likely winner and again he has an impeccable record. The race has been his target for this season, kept fresh on purpose as he runs well after an absence and further assisted by Geraghty in the saddle. Whilst the horse is not a favourite of mine, it would be foolish to discount his chances and he must rate a big threat. The fact this is his season goal as well means he is going to be primed for it and he has to be one of the placed horses. He has form on soft ground but against inferior opposition, so that may just account for his chance to win. The Giant Bolster is another who has been working towards this target, but ultimately his goal will again be the Gold Cup. His normal partner Tom Scudamore rides Grands Crus, which means the Champ picks up a great spare ride and you can be sure he'll be doing all he can to ensure the horse wins. I have enormous respect for David Bridgwater and what he has done with The Giant Bolster, but I think he is very closely matched to Long Run these days and ultimately can see a few others finishing ahead of him as again he seems better on a sounder surface. That leaves us with Kauto Stone and CUE CARD to fill the top two. The former was really good when winning at Down Royal, beating First Lieutenant who has since gone on to finish third in the Hennessey. That's no mean feat and today's 3 mile trip in soft ground will certainly play to his strengths. He may have originally been seen as Nicholls' second string in this event, but he warrants respect and is a player here. I've seen many opinions who think he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as some of his opposition, but there's plenty to like about him in principal, and his form gives him a line through to Bobs Worth who at the moment is a deserved Gold Cup favourite. However my pick is a slight chance on Cue Card. I say slight because whilst it is true he hasn't raced at 3 miles before, I'm not particularly concerned and feel this trip is well within his compass. His breeding oozes stamina, and ever since he came onto the scene his connections have always viewed and talked about him as a Gold Cup horse. Whilst I'm not sure if I'm on that bandwagon just yet, you don't speak in those terms if there's a doubt the horse would get 3 miles in soft at Kempton. His form also reads tremendously, getting as close as possible to Sprinter Sacre over what would arguably be an inadequate trip, coming within a short head of Bobs Worth when conceding 7 pounds, and a wonderful reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup. He also has soft ground form and will be leading the race, which I always like to see in tough conditions. I think he will be hard to peg back and was always my worry in this race when I was on Al Ferof. 6/1 Bet365, Betvictor, William Hill
13.20 Leopardstown
There were doubts over Our Conor's participation in the race yesterday which would have made this a far easier task for BLOOD COTIL, but even if both line up, Willie Mullins' horse is taken to land this. Both figure prominently in the Triumph market and have been impressive, but the 3 pounds the selection receives may just prove decisive. 6/4 Totesport, Betfred
14.55 Leopardstown
The main race of the day from Ireland, a case could be made for all the runners but this looks set to be a head to head between ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE and Oscars Well. The pair have been ultra impressive since switching to fences, with the selection narrowly preferred for the way he hammered Dedigout. He made all that day, going clear early on and never getting pegged back and I expect similar tactics will be employed to great effect today. He clearly has the stamina for a strongly run 2 miles, and whilst Oscars Well is certainly capable of keeping up with him, his past form over hurdles suggests that if the race was run in this way, he wouldn't see it out as well as his opponent. It's also good to hear that usual partner Ruby Walsh rates him so highly that the only reason he's not on board is because of the King George at Kempton. As stated, Benefficient, Baily Green and Dylan Ross are all good horses themselves, but these two are deservedly being spoken about in terms of challenging for the Arkle and it's a mouthwatering race to watch. 5/6 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James
12.35 Ffos Las
WHISPER has only had the one run under rules, but it was a very taking win over today's venue, beating Cheat The Cheater by 15 lengths who rates a decent enough yardstick this season so far to suggest if running to that level, the selection will be hard to pass. His trainer's attentions may be elsewhere today, but this race will surely have been highlighted as winnable and as long as he jumps soundly, should take all the beating. 8/13 Paddy Power, Coral
15.30 Ffos Las
Mortimers Cross held on well at Kelso 17 days ago to win over 4 miles, and it seems a big ask for him to follow up today after such a short time to recover. He has the help of his claimer, but so does course and distance winner Benheir and CARRUTHERS, who's jockey in particular has begun to make a name for himself with some very good performances on Petit Robin. His talent will be a big help to the Lord Oaksey bred horse who should be well ahead of these if in the mood today after under-performing in the Hennessey last time out. 5/1 Paddy Power
14.15 Wincanton
One of the strangest races of the season, containing 21 runners with 7 representing David Pipe. He's clearly trying to assess the looks of his stable for the handicap hurdle scene and the race is further complicated by the appearance of so many claimers. Ardlui will have plenty of support, with the step up in trip expected to suit and his third behind At Fishers Cross looking better since he ran. However it is hard to get away from some of the Pipe horses and THE PACKAGE and GOULANES stand out, with both advised. The former finished 4th in the Hennessey and races off a much lower mark today then he does over fences. Although stamina is his forte, it's going to be a slog at Wincanton today and he has to be considered. The latter relished the stamina test when winning at Cheltenham 39 days ago, and with his claimer taken into account, actually races off a lower mark than that performance. If you have to plump for one over the other, then at a push I'd choose The Package as he is the classier horse, but they both have an outstanding chance.
14.50 Wincanton
On ratings and form, this looks a good opportunity for ROLLING ACES to follow up on his Newbury win. He showed a really good desire to win that day and the form has only been franked since. He is hard to overlook. 10/11 Sportingbet
12.35 Limerick
This is one of the more speculative selections of the lower class races, but even still a chance is taken on BALLYNACREE to build on last year's promise. His time off the track is not a concern, but Umpact does look to have every chance as well, winning impressively a fortnight ago at Gowran and it should be a good race. 5/1 Stan James, Totesport, Betfred
13.40 Limerick
Another strong favourite who is difficult to overlook; MIKAEL D'HAGUENET finally got the luck he needed to get off the mark over fences at Punchestown and he should make easy enough work of this field. Far Away So Close raced in some tough company last season but doesn't seem to have progressed and the main threat should be Argocat, rated highly by connections and running close to Twinlight, who's form provides a good base to work from. He also receives 11 pounds from the selection which should help make this a close contest but the selection is definitely preferred. 4/9 Bet365, Paddy Power
12.25 Down Royal
SALSIFY and Tammys Hill renew rivalries from 3 weeks ago at Wexford and the former is expected to overturn the form with that run under his belt and likely to be much fitter for it. These hunters chases can often be tricky, but the selection won the main race for these horses at the Festival and certainly seems to retain the ability to say he has a big role to play in all these types of races this season. Viking Splash has on a couple of occasions run reasonably close to Salsify to suggest he is playing for place money again, with Crude, Not Before Eight and Slippers Percy others likely to be involved for third. 9/4 several
UPCOMING
Welsh National (now 5th January) Teaforthree 4/1 Bet365. Boylesports
Dial-a-bet Chase (27th December Leopardstown) Sizing Europe 1/2 Bet365, Paddy Power
Lexus Chase (28th December Leopardstown) Sir Des Champs 3/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James
Istabraq Hurdle (29th December Leopardstown) Hurricane Fly 1/3 Paddy Power
Good luck!
The Horse Whispererz
Saturday 22 December 2012
23rd December 2012
Full credit needs to be given to Ascot and Haydock yesterday, who did all they could to ensure a great day's racing in tough conditions to bring an end to British racing before the Christmas period. The only meeting for us to look at today takes place at Thurles, and with no news of an inspection currently, the meeting should hopefully go ahead.
13.30 Thurles
Gigginstown are represented by three of the five runners in this race, all to different trainers, but MIDNIGHT GAME is clearly the first choice and this looks an easy enough encounter for the top rated horse in the race. He raced in some top class company last year without landing much and this lower grade should be well within his range, as shown by a comfotable win at Fairyhouse last time out. The closest rival on ratings and past performances is Joxer, who finished half a length behind the selection this time last year. Although in receipt of 10 pounds today, and even on that close result last year, Willie Mullins' charge should have enough class to take this. 8/15 Bet365
14.00 Thurles
A large affair but UNIKA LA RECONCE is taken to land a quickfire double for Mullins. Walsh has already stated how he is looking forward to the ride, who is the trainer's latest recruit from France. Bigger tasks than this are expected for the daughter of Robin Des Champs and this can be a successful Irish debut. Of the rest of the field Speckled Wood and Geraldine Gold look most likely to cause a problem for the selection. 10/11 several
14.30 Thurles
Another tricky encounter to work out, many will fancy Gortroe who was second last time out in a race where he had to concede a stone to the winner. Bowfinger returns to the track after a long time out but has some fair chase form in the past but may be susceptible to a younger type here, primarily CABALLO DE MARCUS, who can give his jockey a second victory for the day. Others to consider include The Procrastinator and War Correspondent.
Good luck!
The Horse Whisperer
13.30 Thurles
Gigginstown are represented by three of the five runners in this race, all to different trainers, but MIDNIGHT GAME is clearly the first choice and this looks an easy enough encounter for the top rated horse in the race. He raced in some top class company last year without landing much and this lower grade should be well within his range, as shown by a comfotable win at Fairyhouse last time out. The closest rival on ratings and past performances is Joxer, who finished half a length behind the selection this time last year. Although in receipt of 10 pounds today, and even on that close result last year, Willie Mullins' charge should have enough class to take this. 8/15 Bet365
14.00 Thurles
A large affair but UNIKA LA RECONCE is taken to land a quickfire double for Mullins. Walsh has already stated how he is looking forward to the ride, who is the trainer's latest recruit from France. Bigger tasks than this are expected for the daughter of Robin Des Champs and this can be a successful Irish debut. Of the rest of the field Speckled Wood and Geraldine Gold look most likely to cause a problem for the selection. 10/11 several
14.30 Thurles
Another tricky encounter to work out, many will fancy Gortroe who was second last time out in a race where he had to concede a stone to the winner. Bowfinger returns to the track after a long time out but has some fair chase form in the past but may be susceptible to a younger type here, primarily CABALLO DE MARCUS, who can give his jockey a second victory for the day. Others to consider include The Procrastinator and War Correspondent.
Good luck!
The Horse Whisperer
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