3rd October 2012

The Arc continues to cut up with today's withdrawal of Nathaniel. It is such a shame that we won't get to see Snow Fairy, Danedream and Nathaniel, but it does mean that Sea Moon's odds have dramatically come in, as short as 8/1 with some bookmakers and top priced 11s. I managed to tweet the Racing Post today who were having a question and answer session with Christophe Soumillon. With the going at Longchamp currently soft and more rain forecast, I asked whether this would ruin Camelot's chances. The response was optimistic of good-soft ground by the weekend and that the horse is good enough to deal with it, but I'm really not sure. I'm a huge fan of Camelot's but watching the way he won the Irish Derby, it's clear he prefers quicker ground, and if soft is in the description come Sunday and he lines up, I'll be a layer rather than a backer. Orfevre continues to head up the market, and if my suspicions are correct and Camelot does withdraw, I'm sure his price will contract further. He undoubtedly warrants respect but I still like the look of Sea Moon and see him as the value in the race. This is especially the case if Moore makes it back in time to race him as I felt he gave Danedream and Nathaniel a bit too much room last time in the King George, preferring when he races a bit closer, and he should appreciate softer ground more than St Nicholas Abbey. But with a few days left until the Arc, here's a look at tomorrow.

15.35 Salisbury

Tomorrow's highest class race sees 6 runners turn out including a debutant. New Pearl and Kodatish are the most experienced in the race but ultimately look a bit exposed. I much prefer the look of MUTAZAMEN, Alcando and Breton Rock with preference for the former who is just the type his trainer excels with. He has to concede weight to the rest, something he did last time when accelerating away well, but this does look a far stronger field. Nevertheless he's been selectively campaigned and has already come up and performed well on debut against Ashdan. He's not raced on anything as soft as this yet but unless the heavens open he should be able to deal with it. The other two are respected and will no doubt improve from their prior runs, but the selection is entitled to as well and can take this. 9/4

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer