2nd October 2012

Yesterday's selection unfortunately came crashing down 2 fences from home. That highlights what we have to get used to again with the return of national hunt racing, the uncertainties of jumping, but whether Dylan Ross would have beaten Baily Green is debatable. After looking at the racing for the next few days, it doesn't look the best, and with Ascot and the Arc coming up at the weekend, forgive me that I won't be splashing the cash on loads of selections. Speaking of the Arc, I would advise a wager at this time on Sea Moon available at 16/1 with most bookmakers. I should have posted this bet sooner having backed him myself at 33/1, but with the unfortunate unlikely appearance of Danedream, and if the rain continues to come the likely withdrawal of Camelot, this basically becomes a head to head between Nathaniel, Orfevre and Sea Moon. You've got to fancy Nathaniel, aimed at this for a long period, but the value on Sea Moon, especially for a place is very good.

15.40 Ayr

This doesn't look the best of races by any means, but as a result it should mean that market leader SOVEREIGN STREET will be hard to pass. Although Arctic Feeling is respected as the main threat, on his favoured soft five furlongs at Ayr, the selection is a progressive filly who should run well despite a 5 pound rise and from racing out of the handicap. She also possesses enough pace to ensure the drop back to 5 furlongs shouldn't be a problem, and it should also mean she can go for home early and wear the opposition down. It's going to feel a long 5 furlongs, so her extra stamina is a bonus. 2/1

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer