24th September 2012

Monday racing never usually throws up anything spectacular to dig our teeth into. Nevertheless here is one for today.

14.30 Leicester

A couple of horses with some decent form come together in this one. Kimberella's fourth at the time behind Ollie Olga probably didn't appear that solid, but that form has been helped since by the winner's meteoric rise up the rankings. Kimberella could therefore produce something here but all his best runs have been with much looser ground underfoot. He has run previously on better ground at Goodwood, a second behind Mister Marc, which looking back at now with hindsight isn't particularly bad form. It just doesn't inspire as much though as the winner has since gone on to produce little (but in very high company), and the third that day was The Gold Cheongasm who has undoubtedly improved from that debut run. He is therefore passed over and the market will agree with BRAVO YOUMZAIN likely to head it up. He was fancied on this blog before being withdrawn on the first day of the St Leger meeting. His claims that day were on his form, and his lastest run behind Cour Valant and ahead of Hoarding have only helped to enhance it further. My only concern though is the ground. Although his previous runs have been on good or better, he supposedly would prefer some give in it, and at the likely short price he will go off at, I'd be happy to take him on if firm remained in the going. That looks unlikely though with the amount of rain that we had today and due tomorrow, so with the softening conditions he should have enough about him to see this group off. The fact his trainer has also been careful where to place him bodes well. Secretinthepark deserves respect for beating a subsequent winner on debut, but he enters this race 13 and 12 pounds worse off respectively with the other two horses, maybe more depending on how they have all improved since, and should find that hard to make up. Shillito should lead and ensure a good pace to set this up to a decent finish from the others. (3.05 on betfair at time of writing)

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer