25th September 2012

The only pick yesterday, Bravo Youmzain, went down by a neck. It's always a shame to miss out by such fine margins, but there's a bit more depth to today's racing to make up for it.

16.00 Folkestone

This 15 furlong event is going to seem a lot longer with the heavy ground underfoot (going reading as of 18.28 was soft, heavy in places) and as a result we need a stayer and a mudlark to win this. Authentication, although an easy winner last time, is stepping up in distance and has never really handled soft ground so is overlooked. The extra distance should suit Zaahya and Musically has run well on heavy before so may be in with a chance if seeing out the full race. However this surely has to be DARK AND DANGEROUS' chance to win on the flat. A previous winner on soft over hurdles, he'll feel as if he's got nothing on his back and has no problems with stamina. With Hughes on board as well he has a massive chance. There is a risk this fixture may get abandoned after further rainfall, but if it does go ahead, its got to favour the selection more. 4/1

15.10 Beverley

This looks an interesting race with FREE ZONE having to concede weight to his rivals. Arguably that puts him worse off with Es Que Love on ratings, but he has been running well all season, including a third behind Mince last time, when the extra furlong probably cost him. The drop back down to 5 furlongs will suit him, and he is arguably the only horse in the field who won't mind the rain that has been bucketing down all over the country. The current good/good-firm reading surely won't last and I won't be surprised if it's soft. Tax Free seems to have run his good races for the season, Ponty Acclaim requires a lot of blind faith these days to back and the other two in the field have a lot to find on these lot. Class will dominate, and Free Zone appears to be in better form. 11/4

14.50 Newton Abbot

The going is already soft here and with further rain, again it's going to have a big impact. I wouldn't be surprised to see Merrion Square withdrawn as the good ground was key to his success last time. Tough Talkin Man has previously run well on softer going as has Tiger O'Toole, but having to concede weight to CHRISTOPHER WREN may prove too much. The latter has been racing over further recently and hasn't quite seen his races out against good opposition. This drop in trip & class and an ability to probably be able to deal with the ground stands him in good stead. The Champ on board is also a bonus and he looks set to make a successful start to chasing. (price unavailable 4.8 betfair)

15.50 Newton Abbot

Because of the weather this race is going to be run at a crawl and will feel like a marathon. Double Chocolate appears to be the one least able to deal with the going, and this could be a big ask for Ballybough Garta on his first attempt at this distance. It may just be that a horse with a bit more experience takes this. Flemish Invader is too inconsistent to back with any confidence and Mostly Bob may struggle to concede weight to some of these. Of the two left, COME WHAT AUGUSTUS is taken to land this only 6 pounds higher from a course and distance win 23 days ago. Minella Stars is feared as he's won on heavy before, run well in defeat on the soft and looked at times like he requires the extra distance this race will provide; but Come What Augustus arrives in good form on ground he clearly relishes and receiving weight from his rivals can punish them. Furthermore, even though Minella Stars can handle soft, he may just prefer better going. 4/1

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer