21st November 2012

Ultimately a disappointing day yesterday with just the one winner. Shutthefrontdoor has put in an early claim for disappointment of the season and if he doesn't progress with more experience over hurdles then I will be shocked. The Roc De Guye race was in a word - mental. Brendan Powell has received some stick for his wayward ride on Benny The Swinger, but the resounding majority rightly so is supportive. We all make mistakes and what I think punters forget at times with horse racing is that our precious money isn't the most important thing to those involved. Sure connections will know if a horse is a favourite the main part of the public's money will be involved in it, but ultimately this is a business with its own prize money, trophies and prizes to win. Brendan Powell didn't lose on purpose; it cost him money as well. What I was more aggrieved about was the inability of our selection to see out the race! The stewards may think the horse was ridden out but it looks a bit lackadaisical to me. Onto today's racing and here are the best selections.

14.20 Warwick

Ulysee Collonges comes into the race with winning form and thus warrant respect however he was fortunate to win last time out and should ultimately struggle conceding weight to his rivals here. Ulck Du Lin will have improved for his debut over fences and is expected to put up a good show, especially with his trainer no doubt in attendance with Neptune Collonges parading at the racecourse. However he has to concede 5 pounds to KAPGA DE CERISY which ultimately may prove too much. Involved in a hot handicap at Ascot last time finishing 4th, he was well in contention until mistakes at the last two fences cost him. 5th that day Act Of Kalanisi has since won and when given the space to jump how he wants, Venetia Williams' horse takes his fences quite well. Often in that race he was forced to jump under pressure from rivals and he still managed to get round with a positive impression. With likely schooling and progression at home, as well as a drop in trip which should suit, he will put up a fair performance here. Private Equity arrives from Seven Barrows but is watched on his debut over the larger obstacles, as are Red Riverman and Dark And Dangerous. (no price available yet)

14.10 Hexham

At 4 miles and in testing conditions, this race is going to be a thorough slug and there should be a round of applause for anyone who finishes. Seaofemotion therefore doesn't seem the likely sort, and unless his previous races have just been far too short for him I can't see him being involved here, especially from out of the handicap. Pegasus Prince will have to be some machine to carry 11 stone 7 to victory (once the claimer has been taken into account) so my attentions have been focused with the middle four in the racecard. Overyou seems the obvious starting point having run well over course and distance in March this year, but that was on good ground and although she's had some decent performances on softer ground, I will overlook her. Cilliseal came from a mile back to get third last time out, and has good course form on soft ground too, but I'm wary that that run was only 9 days ago and it certainly wasn't a canter on the gallops. When the race really begins to take its toll, I'll be amazed if he has the energy to see out the race after those exertions. That leaves us with HOBB'S DREAM and Leac An Scail who should both see out the trip, but with slight concerns over their jumping. That last point shouldn't be as much of a problem as the likely slow pace should give them plenty of time to weigh up their obstacles and ultimately the 21 pounds less the selection has to carry should help her see this out. She may only have raced 12 days ago, but the race may not have been as testing as Cilliseal's and she has reappeared quickly in the past to win at Hexham in heavy conditions. She also had to carry a welter burden last time so should appreciate the measly 9 stone 7 on her back once the claimer is taken into account. I can envisage Leac An Scail following the selection home though. 7/2 several

18.30 Kempton

A rare venture back to the flat and I was drawn in by a couple of names making an appearance. I have doubts though about Producer's ability to see out the trip strongly, especially conceding weight to his rivals and Sirius Prospect looks to be trying something different after a long but ultimately unsuccessful season at 6 furlongs. Belgian Bill arrives in great form seeking the hattrick but is another who would probably prefer a furlong shorter. Captain Ramius' ability to see out the mile isn't in doubt and he rates a main threat, but it's hard to get away from VALIDUS who goes really well over this course and distance, often key on the polytrack, and should be able to cope with a 6 pound rise. At 3 years old and therefore open to improvement, as well as being so fresh compared to the majority of these, he looks a solid bet. 4/1 several

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer