16th November 2012

Today sees the start of the Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting at Cheltenham. The feature race is tomorrow, as well as some terrific racing on Sunday but don't be fooled into thinking this is a warm up; there are some serious contenders on show today and plenty of hints to pick up for the upcoming season.

13.15 Cheltenham

This initial encounter is fascinating, with all bar Carlito Brigante in with a chance. Although he has a course and distance win to his name, I’m convinced the other horses in the race are going to progress beyond the Gigginstown charge and having to concede weight to the rest should prove beyond him; especially in a race which is going to feature some front runners who should see out this trip very well. Similar to the Hinterland race a couple of weeks ago though, if they go hammer and tongs at the front it will set the race up for him, but I think the jockeys will be wary of that and have that in mind. His last run is excused as the race probably came too soon for him, but he will still have a difficult task today. It’s hard to know what to make of Unioniste as although he showed he has the talent to win over fences when scoring at Aintree 3 weeks ago, the home straight fences were omitted that day so we’ve yet to see just how well his jumping would hold up when the going gets tougher. He’s also now won at Aintree and Auteuil, courses that are quite different in nature to Cheltenham and I would prefer to be a watcher than a backer, especially as he would be the first 4 year old in to win this in a while. He comes from excellent stock though so don’t be surprised if he does show he can mix it with the best in time to come. Thehillofuisneach is another intriguing entry as although his distant fourth last time may provide little in terms of encouragement, it was his first run for 7 months after potentially being amiss. He managed to jump well and travel strongly for a long time at Exeter’s stiff track against some very promising types and a better run is expected; however he may just get outclassed here by some of his rivals. That leaves us with Dynaste and FINGAL BAY and preference is for the latter. Both look set to be good chasers and it will be hard for the selection to concede 5 pounds to David Pipe’s charge as he attempts to replicate winning the race last year with Grands Crus; but I feel Fingal Bay is up to it and his race fitness combined with the experience of winning over fences should stand him in good stead here. Furthermore I have a feeling Dynaste may just prefer a bit more cut in the ground and with that in mind I’ll be siding with Richard Johnson’s mount. 5/4 Bet365, Ladbrokes

13.50 Cheltenham

This looks a harder contest to decipher due to the mixed bag of form on offer. Even though the race has been won by those lower down the weights in the past, it looks as if class could shine through this time around and my attentions have been focused towards the top of the racecard. Astracad has a reasonable record fresh, so don’t be put off by his 205 day absence and this former course and distance winner certainly has the ability to get involved here. However KID CASSIDY’s last run meant he always had to be followed next time out. His run at Aintree certainly seems like a season opener with his late finish indicating he had a lot more to give that day on top of unusual held up detached last tactics. He will be expected to be up with the principals today and looks like giving Nicky Henderson a very good chance of making this four wins in a row.  Silver Roque was ahead of the selection that day and will appreciate the return to better ground after finding little towards the end of that race. He is another certainly in with a chance, as is Arctic Ben if he can overcome his long absence, but his record fresh doesn’t suggest he will. Finally Shooters Wood comes into the reckoning showing improved form in his last two starts but may struggle to see out the Cheltenham hill as well as his rivals. 5/1 Betvictor

14.25 Cheltenham

An absolutely cracking race with plenty in with a chance, the race also features several Irish entries who must feel the trip worthwhile but ultimately this looks set to go to one of the home charges. I think the Irish horses have a bit to find ability wise but also don’t look like improvers compared to the rest due to their age. River Maigue seems to have been thrown in a bit at the deep end here, but that in itself warrants respect as Henderson did the same last year with Captain Conan before he shocked a few in the Tolworth. Ultimately though I’ll overlook him in this instance until we see how he takes a hurdle, especially around Cheltenham. Although Duke Of Navan also looks a good prospect my attentions in particular have been drawn to Court Minstrel, Dodging Bullets and TOMINATOR. Dodging Bullets comes into the race as the highest rated, off the back of a win over course and distance which his trainer declared he would come on for and a superb 4^th in the Triumph Hurdle last year after only one run over fences. It’s all very ominous but he was odds on that day and I’m sure he’ll be a similar price today. As a result I just fancy something else for a bit more value and the other two aren’t no-hopers. Court Minstrel won his race this season the day before Dodging Bullets also over course and distance and arguably in a more eyecatching manner. He travelled supremely well on the bridle up until the last before extending up the hill and away from his opponents which included The Romford Pele who won yesterday at Taunton. Further back that day was Landscape who has also since won and Evan Williams horse can be expected to put up a really good show here. However I just can’t get Tominator away from my thinking who on a line through Countrywide Flame should certainly have the beating of Dodging Bullets in terms of the trip. He had to concede 10 pounds to the Triumph Hurdle winner in this year’s Cesarewitch and nearly did enough to win but that showed he will certainly see out today’s trip and the Cheltenham hill as that Newmarket finish is no pushover either. The only issue is his jumping which understandably was a bit shaky last time at Bangor. However I'm sure he will have been schooled since and an improvement is expected. He will be hard to beat today. 9/2 Bet365

15.00 Cheltenham

Your either a fan of these Cross Country races or not and I quite like them as a change but certainly wouldn’t watch a whole season of them. One of the gripes people had with them was a poor standard, but this running in particular looks to be one of the strongest and shouldn’t be taken lightly. Plenty can be discarded though and the winner looks set to come from the following shortened list of Balthazar King, Sizing Australia, Midnight Haze, Orphee Des Blins and Deutschland. Of the rest, Hello Bud certainly has stamina and sound jumping but his reappearance suggested time may finally be catching up with him and Uncle Junior has been in poor form recently. Balthazar King undoubtedly knows his way around here, as does his jockey which is always important, and has to have a good chance of winning over this trip again after a successful reappearance 4 weeks ago at Cheltenham. However it will be a different prospect this time around shouldering joint top weight and gives some of the others a chance. Sizing Australia warmed up well enough last time out at Naas and should be spot on for this. He too has a great chance being on the right side of a 6 pound weight reversal with Balthazar King. Midnight Haze goes well fresh but ultimately may come up short once again with some of these. Deutschland is lurking at the bottom of the weights and has an experienced rider in the saddle for this event who has chosen him over Uncle Junior. The obvious concern is whether his stamina will last, but if it does he certainly has the ability to get involved. Ultimately though I’m going to go with ORPHEE DES BLINS to complete a famous double after landing the Velka Pardubicka last month. It’s always a big ask but she won with such ease that day that she deserves her chance here against some of the more established cross country horses. It’s Jan Faltejsek’s only ride today so you can be sure he’ll be studying hard to know the course and an upset could be on the cards. 7/1 Bet365

15.35 Cheltenham

A true minefield of a race, there are so many horses in this they need to be narrowed down before we can go further. Of those involved Coffee, Cinevator, Top Wood, Angles Hill and TITAN DE SARTI are all worth a second look with the last named three in particular standing out. Top Wood was last seen to good effect beating Ulck Du Lin but he faces a big ask winning such a competitive handicap first time out this season. Angles Hill form took a boost early this week with Stars Du Grantis victory in a decent field at Exeter. Angles Hill was a close third behind the winner a fortnight ago having to concede 5 pounds and looks set to improve based on that run upped in trip, but the same can apply to the selection who raced in some very strong company two seasons ago and after some time off made a pleasing reappearance behind Court Minstrel, who of course races earlier in the day. He will thoroughly enjoy this step up in distance and combined with his claimer has to carry only 2 pounds more than arguably his main threat. He looks likely to continue his trainer's excellent record in the race. 6/1 several

16.05 Cheltenham

Another tough encounter to end on, it looks set to pay to focus on There's No Panic, Triggerman, Aimigayle, Pentiffic, Bescot Springs, Jewel Of The West and HUNTERS LODGE. All of these have shown stamina and fair jumping ability in the past but Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge seems like he is still on the upgrade and can land the hattrick here. He may not have beaten Romanesco last time if Gordon Elliott's horse would have stayed on his feet, but he was racing off a mockery of a mark and the selection would have finished reasonably close. Pentiffic will have come on for his recent run and There's No Panic probably rates the best of the rest. 7/1 Stan James

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer