15th November 2012

Yesterday was ultimately another very disappointing day. Lively Baron went down to a horse who was highlighted as a threat, Five Dream possibly needed the run and Moidore was undone by Counsel who relished the return to better ground. That last one in particular was aggravating and should have been spotted; I apologise for missing that. We looked set to recuperate some losses on Keppols Hill who was clear at the last before a horrific looking fall. In those moments it's not about what you've backed as you just want to see the horse and rider get up. After a prolonged period the horse did get up and it put the day into perspective as it once again emphasised how without the horses themselves, our interest in this great sport would be non-existent and their welfare always comes first. However it was still a winless day, and finds this service in its worst run since October 11th. This doesn't look set to continue to today with some of the selections but I do not take any pride in this poor run and will be working especially hard this weekend to make up for the poor run as well as the lack of a post last Saturday.

Before we get to today's selections I think I've managed to finalise my antepost selections for Cheltenham, and in keeping with keeping you informed here are the recent additions to Big Buck's, Quevega, Sir Des Champs and Darlan.

I was particularly taken by Zarkandar last weekend, and knowing that his trainer is aiming him all season at the Champion Hurdle, combined with what should be a much smoother campaign, his clear liking for Cheltenham and the extra time he has had to grow, develop and mature he rates a massive threat for the race. If anyone is keen on backing him I certainly wouldn't put you off, especially before we see how Darlan reappears this coming weekend. With that in mind, I have backed some pre-Cheltenham accumulators with Zarkandar in to cover myself, but will still be predominantly rooting on Darlan unless events this season change my opinion.

Looking at the Champion Chase, I have taken a decision that I found much more difficult. I was always looking to take Sprinter Sacre on last year, easy enough at short odds in the build up to the Festival, but much more difficult as it drew closer. I went with Al Ferof in the Arkle and the rest is history. Once again I was looking to take the horse on and in Sanctuaire there is certainly a decent opponent. Ultimately though, the buzz coming out of Seven Barrows about this horse shouldn't be taken lightly and in anticipation of a mesmeric performance this weekend at Cheltenham the 11/10 currently available with Paddy Power will no doubt disappear and unless Nicholls' horse triumphs if the two meet in Tingle Creek he will go off a short price in March. With this in mind, the 8/1 Totesport are offering on Big Buck's and Sprinter Sacre remaining unbeaten this season is something I've got involved in, as with the likely odds they will go off at in each race if they continue winning, you'll be pleased to get 8/1 altogether. I've also added Sprinter Sacre into an accumulator with Big Buck's, Quevega and Sir Des Champs and these four now make up the mainstay of my antepost betting.

The Arkle looks extremely competitive and exciting this year with the market currently headed by Simonsig who we have yet to see take a fence. The two that have caught my eye so far are Oscars Well and Overturn with the latter preferred as his front running tactics may really help his cause come March. Both have demonstrated good jumping and look set to improve, and Simonsig could make his debut over fences and blow us away, but right now 8/1 on Overturn looked good value for a very versatile horse. This was only a small wager.

In terms of the ultra competitive Ryanair, I've taken a small interest in Champion Court, liking how his trainer has already indicated it is his Cheltenham target, compared to the majority in front of him in the betting who may be sent elsewhere. He suffered a small setback recently but this shouldn't pose a problem come March and his second last year in the Jewson behind Sir Des Champs is great form, especially as the latter is my Gold Cup hope too. It all fits nicely together.

That's my latest Cheltenham update. As always it's extremely risky getting involved now as so many things can happen which finish your bet. But it's always fun to try and call it now and hope that you can be on the receiving end of some big payouts in March like a certain stable lad last year.

Onto today's racing and here are the selections.

14.25 Clonmel

Virtually a walkover, it will take something special for SIZING EUROPE to lose this. Exemplary when winning at Punchestown 40 days ago, although conditions are softer than ideal this trip is well within his range and the real aim in this race is to find the forecast. Tranquil Sea has won this race the past two years and has done well to concede bags of weight in his races recently and perform well. He has a good chance to complete the top 2 as on a line through Roi Du Mee, Magnaminity has a bit to find to get close even though the drop back to 20 furlongs will help his cause. However I'm going to take a slight chance on Rathlin, who although disappointing so far this season, may be better suited to the softer conditions today. He's not the best runner fresh so can be forgiven his reappearance run this year over an inadequate trip, and his last run at Naas where he was stepped back up was always going to be a hard task conceding weight to some good yardsticks. He is the selection for second. 2/7 Betvictor

14.55 Clonmel

This encounter is much more competitive and involves Tarla at the bottom of the weights who some were calling to take on Quevega for the mares crown. Representing the same trainer means it looks unlikely and this switch to fences isn't surprising. She receives a very handy weight allowance today but similar to the race last year when Shop DJ was in Tarla's position, this looks likely to go to the more experienced mare in KNOCKFIERNA. An undeniably talented horse, she's been let down twice now by her temperament to run out, including when giving Sir Des Champs a real race at Limerick last year. It's almost no surprise that Geraghty has abandoned her, but the ride is picked up by Davy Russell who has a good record with her and she looks good value here. There's already been some money for her as she's now under the 2/1 mark and I wouldn't be surprised if more came for her. It is worrying that she has now run out twice but hopefully there won't be a third time and she will land the odds today. Our Victoria and Our Girl Salley also deserve their places in the lineup and if something were to happen to the selection, and Tarla struggles with the switch to fences, they would be the most likely to clean up, with Our Girl Salley narrowly preferred. 15/8 Paddy Power

15.00 Ludlow

This doesn't look a strong encounter, with the attention drawn to Zarzal, Karazhan and SPIRIT OF SHANKLY in ascending order.The latter made a pleasing debut over hurdles in a Listed event and showed he certainly has the ability to achieve something in this sphere. (no price available)

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer