28th October 2012

14.50 Aintree

Handicap races like this, where one horse is meant to be far better than the rest at the top of the racecard, are always difficult to decipher as the initial starting point is whether that horse is considered good enough to win off top weight. Many horses have done it in the past, and some have gone down as some of the greatest performances in recent memory, for instance Denman in the 2009 Hennessey Gold Cup, and whilst noone is claiming LOVCEN is in that bracket, if he is serious about making an impact at Grade 1 level again, this handicap should be well within his reach. There are suggestions about training him to take on Big Buck's for the World Hurdle, and if that is a valid claim then he needs to put this field down, otherwise he'll be sent chasing. We know he likes the track, and will appreciate the good ground so the next question is is there anything in the field that is improving and can trouble him? Eagle Rock looks like he could give a good account here, but the step up to 3 miles is a major concern so the real threat has to be Buachaill Alainn who arrives seeking a hattrick of 3 miles + wins. He beat a 130 rated horse well last time out so possible still has a bit to find with the selection but he is the chief improver in the field. Abnaki and Mavalenta also come with 3 mile hurdling wins, but neither horse has faced something of Lovcen's class yet and he is taken to seal this. 3/1 Boylesports

15.25 Aintree

This looks like a handicap where it will ultimately pay to focus towards the bottom of the weights, with improvers Silver Roque and Merrion Square looking like there's more to come from both. They seem to have enough to take advantage off this mark against Kid Cassidy and Lidar but at current prices I'm drawn to PURE FAITH for an each way bet. It's undeniable that he is a different horse around Aintree, and although his last two starts have been poor, if he is near whatever his best may be, he should be able to have some kind of impact here. He was running as well as he could have been expected in the top class 2 mile events last year, arguably in some better than expected, and on his Aintree form and this mark he can make the places here. 16/1 several

13.55 Wincanton

Lurking at the bottom of the weights and sure to enjoy conditions today is UPHAM ATOM. This strange 27 furlong distance is around his minimum as the extra distance seems to bring out the best in him. He enjoys it around Wincanton and has enough about him to take advantage of this mark. Something that Minella Stars will have to prove today as he needs to show he is really taking a step forward for me to back him. Ultra consistent, he's been racing around this mark for a while now mostly being thereabouts rather than there itself and I feel his bottom weight rival may just have it on this occasion. Air Force One is a former Grade 1 winner, but he is being campaigned at handicaps this year so they will be trying to preserve his mark on this first run back in nearly a year. He's never won after coming back from a 60 day or longer break either. Fortification runs well fresh but may find this difficult off top weight. 6/1 Coral, Sportingbet

14.45 Longchamp

With the care that has been taken to pick this race, BROWN PANTHER is expected to enjoy this trip more than his main market rival Dalkala. Course and distance winner Verema is the second string of the Aga Khan according to jockey bookings, but this isn't a trip into the unknown for her. Hurricane Higgins would be much more respected if he could handle the soft ground as well as his rivals, but the heavy going should play this into the hands of Michael Owen's pride and joy. 3/1 Ladbrokes

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer