27th October 2012

Welcome again to The Horse Whisperer at the weekend. Today brings with it another fantastic days racing from both codes with the feature race the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster as well as Aintree and Chepstow holding some really top drawer meetings. Don't forget also racing from Newbury and at Leopardstown and Wexford from across the Irish Sea. As a result of so many races and so many good horses coming together, this weekend's post will be a bit different. The main 3 selections will be listed first, and will cover the main races of the day, the Racing Post Trophy and the Old Roan Chase from Aintree, as well as the Trigo Stakes from Leopardstown. These are the 3 races that I'm most confident over as well as covering the focus of the day. The next set of selections will include well fancied horses and other good chances.

MAIN RACES

15.05 Doncaster - Racing Post Trophy

There has been so much build up to this race that it's a pleasure to finally have it here! Things really altered on Monday with the final supplementations and declarations for the race and the betting angle of the race completely changed with the withdrawal of Battle Of Marengo and the introduction of Kingsbarns. Kingsbarns represents Ballydoyle's Derby hope for next year, and they look to reproduce what they did with Camelot last year and win this after only one race before moving onto big things next year. The horse was impressive on his debut, winning by 7 lengths when eased down at Navan on importantly soft ground. The going at Doncaster is currently soft, good to soft in places, and with the weather  due to be pleasant today it shouldn't descend into bottomless conditions, but I can't see it improving to good ground. As a result a horse who can handle such conditions is desired and as mentioned before, Kingsbarns will certainly deal with it. There's just a concern for me however which ensures that at current prices he does not appeal to me. Kingsbarns, if winning, would become the third horse in the past 9 runnings at Doncaster to win after only one run. That's not to say he couldn't, but looking at the class of some of the past winners they've all needed more than one run, with Camelot the last one to do it after just one, but we all know how special a horse he is. His owners knew that, hence he was given the name they had on reserve for 10 years, so I'm a bit sceptical that this horse is in that mould of 'special'. However the horse is obviously open to any amount of improvement and clearly rates as the stable's number one therefore warranting respect due to their great record in the race. There seems to be much to like and I fully expect him to run into a place, but my attentions have been drawn elsewhere, namely to VAN DER NEER. He is another with a near perfect profile for the winner in this race but falls down on the fact his maiden win was not over at least 7 furlongs. Obviously the point of this trend is the focus on stamina needed around Doncaster, but Richard Hannon's horse has never shown like he's going to struggle to see out a mile. Furthermore what I love about this horse is that we saw him run well on debut, but then improve magnificently for his second run, and it just makes you wonder what could he do today. Hannon is well known for his promising 2 year olds, and they've had a terrific year again and I wouldn't put it past Van Der Neer signing off the year in style. He again performs on soft ground and what's extremely exciting is the way he quickens. I can't imagine they're going to go off at a blistering gallop in this, so there's going to be a crucial moment when kicking for home counts and this colt possesses bags of pace. What's also interesting was the fact he was supplemented this week like Kingsbarns. Connections are here to win, they're not turning up for place money. His price also catches the eye as he is best priced at 6/1 with some bookmakers but as low as 9/2 with others. I expect some money to come for him in the morning and I really like the look of him. Obviously these aren't the only 2 likely sorts in the race. Steeler has already won at Group 1 level and has performed so well all year, but he's untried on soft ground and his pedigree doesn't suggest it will suit. Trading Leather is another who's improved with each run, but he seems more likely as a horse that plugs on to win rather than a pacey sort. Good for when he undoubtedly races over further next year, but with the view that pace will be important at some point tomorrow, he may just miss out here. First Cornerstone is another interesting Irish raider and again will handle the going but has to break a big trend by coming here after 2 months off. 6/1 several 7 Betfair

15.30 Aintree - Old Roan Chase

After last season's three runner event it's great to see a proper turnout for this contest with plenty of horses looking in with a chance. However there are a few factors about this race, the prevailing conditions, and the likely performances of the horses that I think have narrowed this down nicely. Wishfull Thinking heads up the weights and undoubtedly likes it around Aintree. He won really well around here over course and distance in the Novices' Chase and last season performed well in the Melling Chase when he had otherwise looked inconsistent. His trainer has a good record in the race and the stable is in fine form, but conceding weight may ultimately be his downfall and until we know which horse turns up he is backed for a win on faith. I do expect him to run into the places though if he is back to something like his old self. It may seem a big ask off top weight, but this race tends to go to a more experienced proven horse. Pacha Du Polder is therefore the least likely, but is the current market leader. It's not rare for a Nicholls horse to head up the market, but they don't always oblige in this race, and he would become the first younger horse since a certain Kauto Star to win this race. Big shoes to fill and although his connections think he is a fine horse, I'll be taking him on in this especially as it is felt he will benefit from further than today's trip. For Non Stop is the other younger horse at 7, just below the usual 8 year old plus winner of this encounter, and he can even include a Grade 1 victory over the favourite last year on his CV. He also ended the season off well coming third in the Jewson, which he was never going to win due to the imperious Sir Des Champs. He rates the bigger threat out of the two but would prefer softer conditions underfoot. The same could arguably apply to Noble Prince who has been racing on soft or worse for much of the past couple of seasons and usually over shorter. Today however he gets similar conditions to his Festival win in 2011 in the Jewson and on that bare form should have the beating of Wishfull Thinking. However I am yet to be convinced these are his optimal conditions and his trainer has already said he will come on for the run. That will apply to most of the runners, but may just help out my fancy, NACARAT. As the oldest horse in the race he is susceptible to one of the younger horses if they're still improving. But if they aren't spot on for this race, this front running, good ground, Aintree loving veteran is going to take a lot to pass. Especially seeing as he is dropping back in trip which will further aid his cause at 3 miles was starting to look a bit far for him. He seems overpriced for this race and will certainly give us a run for our money. Gauvain is yet to show this trip is right for him and Hector's Choice still has a bit to find with the selection. 14/1 Stan James 15.5 Betfair

17.05 Leopardstown - Trigo Stakes

Although not the highest class race of the day, one of racing's most consistent high class performers turns out here with FAMOUS NAME bidding to continue his amazing record at this level. He's proven time and time again around here and should have more than enough for this field. Caponata is the main threat, but represents the same connections and Chrysanthemum has a bit to find with the pair. 4/6 Paddy Power, 1.64 Betfair

STRONGLY FANCIED

14.35 Chepstow

An interesting encounter here, this novice chase is likely to focus on KNOCK A HAND and Rev It Up, both proven at 3 miles and both lovers of Chepstow, especially in soft conditions. Preference however is for the former, who was better over hurdles, has already show point form and is extremely well fancied by his trainer. 6/4 several 2.6 Betfair

15.40 Chepstow

Another strong favourite in this encounter, with the market dominated by WONDERFUL CHARM. He arrives with a wave of expectation and is expected to make a winning start on his UK debut. It's very telling that Walsh is riding at Chepstow today rather than at Aintree as this horse has a big future and should be hard to pass here. 6/5 Paddy Power, 2.14 Betfair

VALUE BETS

14.45 Newbury

I'm willing to give NOBLE MISSION one last chance and feel he is up for taking this. Although Hawaafez is well respected, the fact Harris Tweed races in this will ensure they go at a good honest gallop, something that was missing for the selection last time out in the Great Voltigeur Stakes. He has the necessary class and stamina to perform well here and get back into the winner's enclosure. 4/1 William Hill, 4.8 Betfair

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer