Wednesday, 31 October 2012

1st November 2012

The hot run continues with yesterday's double landing and that's now 5 winners from the last 6 horses tipped; and the other one was an each way selection that paid out with some bookmakers. We come towards the weekend again and the mouthwatering prospect of the Breeders Cup, the Charlie Hall Chase and the JNWine Chase. With the Breeders Cup odds starting to take shape these are the 6 that stand out for me so far. Admittedly my US racing knowledge isn't great so I've tried to find what I think are worthy favourites. These are the selections for any Breeders Cup antepost action.


Sky Lantern - Juvenile Fillies Turf (Friday 2:28pm local time)
The Fugue - Filly & Mare Turf (Friday 3:48pm)
Dundonnell - Juvenile Turf (Saturday 11:50 am)
St Nicholas Abbey - Turf (Saturday 3:18pm)
Excelebration - Mile (Saturday 4:40pm)
Game On Dude - (Saturday Classic 5:30pm)

Of the 6, the most favoured are Excelebration & St Nicholas Abbey, followed by Dundonnell & Sky Lantern. Whilst The Fugue & Game On Dude are undoubtedly class horses, I feel they're more susceptible and are included for the chance for the big 6 fold payout.

Back to UK racing and to today's action. There's some good contests and here are the best bets.

14.50 Lingfield

The day's first Listed contest features two horses well clear of the field on ratings in Moone's My Name and Sentaril. The former's widest draw of all ensures she will need to get out quickly as she likes to race up with the pace and whether that will harm her chances we have yet to see. It was arguably the cause of Starspangledbanner's weak finish in the Mercury Stakes last week against a field of improvers and I can envisage something similar in this race for the current favourite. Sentaril makes more appeal, aided by Graham Lee's booking in the saddle, and this looks a good opportunity to get her head back in front after recent near misses. I was on her for the Sceptre Stakes where she came up short against Sunday Times, and whilst I'm sure she has the ability to win today, the value for me looks to be finding an improver, proven on the all weather (unlike either Sentaril or Moone's My Name) who should provide a good each way bet. Night Lily has a course and distance win to her name but doesn't appeal in this encounter on current form and the same applies to Burke's Rock. However I just have a sneaking fancy for BAHEEJA. She's improved with every run since August, has won at the track and looks like she's been crying out for a return to a mile. She rates a solid each way chance especially if she improves again. 9/1 Bet 365, William Hill

15.20 Lingfield

This is the second Listed encounter at Lingfield and again provides us with some great value. Surprise Moment heads up the market and brings an undefeated reputation to proceedings. She's one of the few in the race that has shown some good form around this peculiar distance of 13 furlongs, winning over a mile and half last time but I'm not sure how well hold up tactics are going to work in this race with some genuine front runners in the line up. In particular I have a lot of time for RUMH, but she seems to do best in races where her class can really shine through and she can dominate proceedings. Unlikely to get things all her own way up front with others in the race, namely Albamara, the way to win this will be to test the others' stamina as we know Rumh can win up to 2 miles. She has the ability to do this and really take a hold of the race and dictate it how connections want. Consequently I like the chances of Rumh to take this from start to finish as she also clearly enjoys the polytrack. Albamara is respected, especially receiving 7 pounds from the selection but may ultimately get run into the ground here by the Godolphin horse. In case the front running tactics don't work, Polygon will be riding close up looking to pounce but has a difficult task conceding weight to all rivals. On her last run, Good Morning Star is entitled to a chance and should at least see out the race better than most, but she is closely matched with Tempest Fugit. Roxy Flyer brings good polytrack form into the race but may get found wanting with some of these and anyway I prefer Aniseed who is also a previous course winner. 13/2 Betvictor, Boylesports, Betfred, Totesport

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer

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