18th October 2012

Yesterday saw Dr Yes justify favouritism and return us to the midweek winner's enclosure after a much longer time out than desired! Advised on this blog at 4/1, he eventually went off at 5/2, and after coping with a 10 pound rise, he is firmly on the alert system so we will know when his next run is to see if he can continue his progression. The day also saw Bothy finish second. At an SP of 14/1 he was certainly an each way bet, but when advised at 7/1 the night before I thought that was a bit skinny for advising each way money. As a general rule of thumb, anything over 10/1 is an each way bet, with those between 5/1 and 10/1 each way propositions if they are viewed more as place bets than win bets.

The weather continues to potentially wreak havoc with the weekend's preparations as there are thoughts the going may be heavy in places on Saturday which would seem to suit Cirrus Des Aigles more than Frankel. Ascot however has been well preserved all summer and it's fast drying nature should ensure unless we have a torrential downpour, the going should be well within Frankel's compass. Although I don't doubt he would win on heavy, for the 'distance to win by' bet, the faster the ground the better for the Galileo/Kind colt.

On to today's racing and with Cheltenham lurking on Friday the weekend really does catch the eye. However there are some horses of note.

14.50 Wincanton

This hurdle encounter is really going to find out who the stayers are at two and three quarter miles, and even though stranger things have happened in horse racing than a horse who hasn't shown anything at this distance doing something, it looks set to pay to stick with a charge we know should stick out the distance. On past form however, none of these have impressed sufficiently at the distance, so instead we have to look a bit deeper and that's where TWELVE ROSES stands out. His pedigree certainly implies that this should be well within his reach being a brother to Cinderella Roses who stays this far; as well as coming from the same sire as plenty of horses who have won up to 3 miles. On top of that, his only race under rules was a win which had a subsequent winner back in third, and although he had a 7 pound claimer on board that day, we can negate that with the replacement of the experience of McCoy. Kim Bailey has continued this season in the fine form that made him profitable to follow last year and he is very much respected here. Cloudy Bob tops the ratings and should be involved here but Judge Davis looks more of a threat to the selection as this extra distance should suit and this race looks less competitive than some he has contested. (price currently unavailable 3.4 Betfair) 7/4

15.40 Uttoxeter

Pearls Legend is a horse we will be looking to follow this year as he has improved with each run, but may prove more profitable in handicaps rather than events like this where he has to concede a 7 pound penalty to the rest of the field. He should certainly be involved in the finish as this trip should not inconvenience him, but the penalty will probably count against likely favourite GROUSE LODGE. He is another who will be able to handle this trip, especially in testing conditions, and has already shown some ability and is also entitled to improve. They are the two that clearly stand out in this race, and as long as staying on their feet, they should account for the 1-2. (price currently unavailable, 2.82 Betfair) 11/8

16.20 Wincanton

Ivor's King looks set to go off favourite after an impressive display 7 days ago winning with some in hand which should mean the 7 pound rise he receives today isn't too much to overcome. My only concern though is the quality of that race, which seemed very poor and although he is at the right end of the weights, he looks short enough near evens for me to look elsewhere. Decimus is one of those towards the head of the weights who improved in his first runs over hurdles and now handicapping has a fair chance, but of the higher burden carrying horses, I prefer OSCAR'S SECRET with his 7 pound claimer. He prefers a stamina test and I'll be doing a rain dance to ensure there is as much as possible for him to make this a real slog. The only problem is that puts him right in the line of Starlife at the bottom of the weights, who although running poorly last time will be a lot better for that run and is feared on favoured soft ground. 10/1 Paddy Power, 14.5 Betfair (UPDATE: now available at around 16/1, this is an each way selection)

Punchestown - usually a postponed fixture at Punchestown is done to salvage racing the day after. So just in case racing does go ahead:
14.15 looks a very easy task for TRIFOLIUM at 1/2
15.45 Baily Green may be thriving and will certainly handle heavy going, but at the prices SPECIAL TIARA is worth a wager 9/2
16.15 some real names on show here, Follow The Plan remains an enigma so preference is for JONCOL who comes out best at the weights and if all is well will be hard to beat. His trainer has shown some encouragement. 6/4

UPDATE - with confirmation of racing at Punchestown, I'm going for these bets today for some bigger wins off smaller stakes - Trifolium/Joncol/Grouse Lodge treble; Trifolium/Joncol/Twelve Roses treble and then the accumulator of all 4

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer