17th October 2012

For a moment I'm all sure we thought Richard Hughes was going to do the unthinkable yesterday. Typical though that the first of his losers was the horse tipped on this blog! The day wasn't a write off however, as Standintheband's 3rd place finish would have scored for the advised each way bet, and ensured enough money back if taken at some of the prices that were available in the morning at 14/1. We move on to tomorrow as we inch ever closer to Frankel Saturday. I've just gone in today with William Hill on the 'Frankel to win by how far' market and gone for the value and backed him to win by 8 lengths or more and 10 lengths or more. Currently available at 7/2 and 8/1 respectively, I do hope that seeing as it is his last race they decide to go all out and see what he can really do. The soft ground is no concern for me. If you watch his debut run again here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJvKmL_Ti6Y, the last time he encountered ground anywhere near as soft as he is likely to face Saturday, you can see he copes well, cruising alongside Nathaniel who we know is a bit of a soft specialist. Frankel has only gone on to improve since, and if you are looking for a bet in the race, instead of the minefield of the forecast, I think the distance market is better. On to tomorrow's racing.

15.25 Wetherby

National hunt racing continues back at Wetherby after making its seasonal reappearance yesterday, and there are plenty of horses making their own appearances today in this tricky handicap hurdle. Simply Ned instantly catches the eye and heads up the market after a fine season last year, which ended with a disappointing 4th at Musselburgh. He hasn't been seen since and at 5 years old is no doubt bound to improve with every run, but I would rather be an observer than a backer on him this time around. It will be interesting to see where Richards takes Simply Ned this year, but he may just need this run along with a few others. Karasenir runs after nearly a year out, and Wolf Hall races after a long lay off as does the quirky Lightening Rod. The latter is well regarded and his 5 pound claimer assists matters, but I'm more drawn to the top weight BOTHY. He's had a couple of recent runs on the flat which should have sharpened him up, and his hurdling form prior to that is certainly good enough to impact on proceedings here, especially at this reduced mark of 135. He's had some good runs in defeat behind Menorah and Carlito Brigante in the Coral Cup and rightly sets the ratings standard here. 7/1 several; 9 Betfair

16.05 Lingfield

This is the highest class contest on the card at Lingfield and some decent 3 year olds have turned out for it. Richard Hughes will look to continue his fine form on Valiant and would be fancied on his earlier form in the season, but over this trip and off top weight he is passed over. Muntasir carries Dettori and has been fairly consistent this season but this mark looks a touch high for him. Representation is the most fancied of the Godolphin trio, and having beaten Totalize already this season, arguably has a chance. This trip is an unknown however and with that in mind others are preferred. Totalize arrives in good form, winning last time out, but if anything that makes DR YES look more impressive who's form took another boost with Bank Bonus' victory at Chester. He faces a 10 pound rise, but on his last performance you wouldn't put it past him. Fennell Bay gets to race off a 1 pound lower mark than when tipped on here last time and may just find a couple too good here again. 4/1 several, 5 betfair

13.50 Wetherby

After taking another look this morning through the racecards, I do like the look of MISSISSIPPI BLUES in this first race. He has the Champ on board, trained by Jonjo, and is very well bred from the Coolmore maestros. He could flop like any horse on debut, but with these factors underpinning his appearance, a decent run is expected. 100/30 Sportingbet, 4.9 Betfair

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer