13th October 2012

Our three runners yesterday included a non runner, an 8th from Bond Club who couldn't quite make the step up in class and an each way win on Hudson's Bay. His debut run was promising and it will be interesting to see what this latest recruit from the Bolger yard goes on to do.

Moving to today and we have a great set of cards to look forward to, from both a flat and national hunt aspect. The new national hunt season really starts to take shape today, with some good names making their seasonal reappearances, and it only whets the appetite for the first Cheltenham meeting next week. Here are the previews for today's racing.

Newmarket provides a truly top class meeting with virtually all the races noteworthy. This meeting will be analysed first with the best picks from other meeting afterwards. The best bets will be noted together at the end.

13.50 Newmarket

A real competitive Group 2 to start proceedings with some great value for punters. The favourite earlier yesterday was Libranno, based on his win in the OLBG Park Stakes at Doncaster last time, but I would take that race with a pinch of salt as it seemed to fall into his lap a bit. He no doubt ran well to avoid trouble and finish gamely, but others appeal more in this race. Primarily SCARF who is now vying for favouritism and deservedly so after showing in some of his recent outings the class that made him so highly thought of in Australia and his form taking a recent boost with Skilful's victory at Ascot last week.The 3 year olds look disappointing with Fulbright's best performances over further and Reply disappointing all year. Edinburgh Knight needs to bounce back to form but may be done for the year. All things considered, preference is for Dettori's mount. 5/1

14.20 Newmarket

This is a really good Middle Park Stakes with Reckless Abandon heading up the market after an impressive, unbeaten season. At 2/1 with some bookmakers, this Group 1 winner could in hindsight look the value bet on the card, as he has beaten everything in his path this year including subsequent Mill Reef winner Moohaajim. The latter should perform better then that run at Deauville and is expected to close the gap but I'm going to take them both on with CRISTOFORO COLOMBO at the likely prices. O'Brien has been careful to place this colt, pulling him out of a race with Dawn Approach 28 days ago, after finishing only a length behind that charge in the Coventry. That form took a boost yesterday with Lines Of Battle's victory and we haven't seen the best of him yet. The soft ground undid him at the Currragh and with drying ground at Newmarket he seems overpriced to take on the big two. The rest of the field isn't just nobodies either, with Hototo, Master Of War, Blaine and Heavy Metal providing further threats. I like Heavy Metal as a big outsider on his first race in a while without a penalty and this does look a real cracker. 5/1

14.55 Newmarket

Is this today's true feature race? Each of DAWN APPROACH's runs begin to gain more and more hype as flat racing looks for its true next superstar and Jim Bolger's juvenile looks all set to justify the hype and land this big pot after scaring off the opposition. Only 5 turn out to take him on, and on his past performances can you blame others for looking elsewhere? He's been imperious this year, landing a 121p timeform rating, nudging ever closer to Frankel's 126 in this race in 2010. I'm not sure he'll be able to match that rating due to his opposition, but the race looks at his mercy. At short odds he looks a good addition to single selections to boost the price as he looks extremely hard to pass. 2/5

15.35 Newmarket

One of the highlight's of the racing calendar, the Cesarewitch and its own peculiarities takes place today. The buildup has been steady with lots of talk as always over certain horses, arguably none more than Montaser who secured his entry into the race with the withdrawal of one of his owner's other horses. He comes out ridiculously well in the ratings at the weights at the bottom of the card and I'm sure Norton on board would love to prove a point after the week he has had. However 3 year olds don't have a great record and my money will be on COUNTRYWIDE FLAME. Unoriginal as the favourite, this horse is so gritty and loves a good fight, and this looks right up his street. Last year's Triumph hurdle winner, although carrying a penalty, must still think he's racing with no jockey on his back, and although conceding 5 pounds to Montaser his experience and doggedness can see him go for home and stay in front here. He gets to race off the same mark as his victory at Chester 29 days ago, and he looks set to continue the good performances of national hunt horses on the flat. He also has a good draw in 7 to get his front place early with little exertions and his experience is going to be a big factor in landing this. Other notables in the race are Decoy and Alhellal who look best of the rest to fill the places. 9/1

17.15 Newmarket

The final race on the card looks another good affair and the market is a really tight one in trying to find a favourite. As a result though the value is excellent for us. French Navy is one of them towards the head of the betting and looks to recapture some of the form that made him so profitable around this time last year. His second to Poet last time out indicated a return to some form but others still appeal more. Many will like the chances of Bronze Angel, turning out again a fortnight after his superb Cambridgeshire win, but whether he is ready to mix it at Group level is yet to be determined. He received a stone from the third home that day, Boom And Bust, a more accurate marker of this level so although Turner says he is well, I'll be taking him on. Second that day, MULL OF KILLOUGH looks more set to reverse form with a 4 pound swing in his favour and certainly runs well at Newmarket. He has a much better chance of taking the step up to Group company and is a great each way bet. Trade Commissioner looks to try and bounce back after disappointing in the Sovereign Stakes. Producer may just miss out at this 9 furlong trip and Quick Wit may look like his stable's third string but is the most fancied Godolphin charge for me. Stipulate has gone off the boil since his course and distance win so it is Jane Chappel-Hyam's horse to be the value bet in this, with Joseph O'Brien sticking around to take the ride again. 12/1

15.00 Chepstow

This 5 runner affair really gets the national hunt juices flowing with the eagerly awaited chasing debuts of Poungach and FINGAL BAY. The former is certainly going to progress well this year, with chasing set to be his game, but the same can be said for the latter, and at this moment, Hobbs' horse just shaves it and should come out on top. 4/6

15.40 Chepstow

Not a proper selection, as it looks a tough race, but if pushed for one HINTERLAND should run well. Connections are looking to take him chasing this year, so this hurdle event is a freshener. Whether his win is certain enough at 5/4 I'm unsure.

16.10 Chepstow

Another tricky handicap encounter, but DARK AND DANGEROUS' flat exertions must have been a warm up for this, and with the Champ reuniting in the saddle, he looks well overpriced for a place. Carrigmorna King sets a good standard on last season's form but in testing conditions, the selection looks a better pick. 16/1

16.45 Chepstow

Another smart Nicholls prospect in RANGITOTO who looks set to win if at his best and certainly provides more value than Hinterland. If all is well he will be hard to pass. 7/2

BEST BETS - good selections to place with the others for price boosts
Dawn Approach
Fingal Bay

EACH WAY VALUE
Mull Of Killough
Dark And Dangerous

FAVOURED
Scarf
Countrywide Flame

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer