29th September 2012

The rain came yesterday at Newmarket and changed the complexion of plenty of the races. Certify was still able to win, and continues her progress to the 1000 Guineas. She will be a very interesting animal to follow next year. Here's a preview of today's action.

BEST BETS

13.55 Newmarket

This is a good renewal of the Royal Lodge with a couple of horses that were introduced later in the season looking to beat some of the juveniles with a bit more experience. Those unexposed types tend to do better in this race and therefore focus in on Fantastic Moon and AL WAAB. Undoubtedly Steeler and others warrant respect, but these two in particular look open to improvement. The former was very impressive when winning the Solario Stakes and looked as if a step up in trip would suit, however I just prefer Al Waab, who is taken to improve on his second run over a mile that definitely seems to suit. He nearly caught Havana Gold last time out and looks the value bet in the race, especially for at least a place. 13/2

14.25 Newmarket

The Gold Cheongasm takes a massive step up to Group 1 company, and although a good winner last time at the St Leger meeting, this looks a huge ask for the filly, especially up against some proven Group level performers. Ceiling Kitty ran well with a penalty last time, but may prove better over 5 furlongs than today's 6. Sendmylovetorose looks to bounce back from a disappointing run at the Curragh last time and is more than capable, and Baileys Jubilee attempts to make it a win after finishing runner up the past 3 times. She was second behind Rosdhu Queen last time, who is once again in with a big shout but preference is for MAUREEN. She's been very impressive this year and deserves a Group 1 victory. Winning Express' supplementation for this means she is a big threat but may just need this first run against the big guns in the division to see where she rates before improving next time out. 5/2

15.00 Newmarket

This is an absolutely top class race, with Beauty Parlour trying 8 furlongs for the first time which should suit. Chachamaidee may struggle to win this with the penalty. Siyouma looks more capable of carrying the extra weight to victory here, and Up continues to improve and deserves a go at the level. But instead ELUSIVE KATE is fancied to take this. Performing really well since back after a long time off the track, she's been racing at the highest level and the former Group 1 winner can add this to her locker. 5/2

VALUE BETS

15.40 Newmarket

An absolute minefield of a race to decipher, but something that may help is the appearance of yesterday's high draw bias. As a result I'm going to stick to horses from further across and the couple that stand out in this race are START RIGHT, REWARDED and TALK ABOUT. 25/1, 18/1 and 28/1 each best priced.

16.25 Haydock

SCRAPPER SMITH will love conditions today, should see out the race better than most and his 5 pound claimer arrives in some form as well. 4/1

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer