22nd September 2012

Welcome to Saturday's edition of The Horse Whisperer on Ayr Gold Cup day. It seems as if the past couple of weekend's good results over the bookies are going to take a bit of a kicking today, with several large field sprint handicaps which are a nightmare for punters to decipher. Out of today's card however there are two races that look best for betting activity as they have smaller fields and are classier races.

BEST BETS

14.05 Newbury

This 4 runner race is a really interesting proposition with plenty of horses coming into the race in very good form. Preference was for Arctic Cosmos prior to his non declaration on the fear he would turn this into a stamina test and find a few of them out. With his withdrawal however the race looks to be a much steadier run affair and could effectively turn into a sprint at the end.Cameron Highland heads up the market at a short price and probably deserves favouritism after racking up a relevantly recent double, including a Listed stakes win last time out by four and half lengths from subsequent winners Goldoni and Songcraft. That race was a steadily run affair and that may happen again today. Furthermore Cameron Highland's chances can't be harmed by being back on a faster surface. Black Spirit, tipped on here last week, comes in good form but has been found out on 3 previous occasions at this level and that looks set to continue. Lay Time also arrives in good form after a Listed win which had Grandeur behind. She was all out that day, but put that down to soft ground, and the main concern is whether she has the necessary turn of foot to keep up with the pace when this race likely starts towards the end. She should see the race out well, but whether she'll be brushed off at the key moment remains to be seen. Instead preference is for COQUET, who takes a big drop in class after racing against some of the best. A fast pace wont necessarily find her out and if it's a more slower run affair, she has a big chance as she definitely has a turn of foot., something she showed when winning at Goodwood under a penalty. She deserves another chance. 11/2

14.35 Newbury

This 6 furlong Group 2 stakes finds a couple of horses renewing old rivalries, and that could help to separate them. The market leader is Moohaajim, racing after finishing 5th behind Reckless Abandon in a Group 1 last time out. The 4th home that day, Sir Prancealot, has since won, and Moohaajim is entitled to improve after only 2 runs. However HEAVY METAL has beaten some good yardsticks, whilst carrrying a penalty, and he continues to remain underestimated. He's shown real grit in his past couple of races, and it will be key today to come out on top in a battle. Under the infamous Fallon drive, he looks great value, at least for a place. Cay Verde won after finishing third behind Heavy Metal, but there seems little to indicate a reversal in form. Michael Hills picks Funk Soul Brother  over Lucky Beggar, but these two look a bit out their depth at this level. Master Of War could have a chance reversing form with Heavy Metal in receipt of 3 pounds today, but that was the view last time and Heavy Metal finished ahead of those he had previously raced in the Gimcrack and can see that happening again. Taayel could be anything on only his second start but preference is for a horse with more experience. 6/1


16.40 Ayr

Not only does OPERA GAL come out best at the weights, but she has run well before on soft conditions so should handle today. Epernay has a lot to find with the selection and the others are yet to show anything in conditions like these. Arrigo looks a stayer though and should give the selection most work. Evens


VALUE BETS

15.45 Newbury

This is one of the better handicaps run today and Swiss Spirit looks likely to go off favourite after some good recent runs, with excuses for last time out. The key to this race will be seeing out the trip as with the fast going it's going to be a very quick affair. Therefore the drop back to 5 furlongs should help Elsworth's charge, but another who should be at home today is EXCELETTE. Tipped on here last time out at a big price each way, the key to this horse is going with firm in the description, which she gets again today. She has run some big races in defeat under these conditions, and will be up there with the head of the group in a bid to take this one. Ballesteros probably needs some give in the ground to really get into this one, but on current form alone he is tough to fancy. Conversely, Ballista is in the form of his life, and will undoubtedly put up a good display. Kingsgate Native should improve for his comeback run and is back down to the mark of his 4th in the Nunthorpe. A better showing than 10 days ago is expected and he is feared. Secret Witness looks held at this level and My Girl Anna looks in need of softer ground. 8/1

15.30 Ayr

2012 sees a very competitive renewal of the Gold Cup, with Our Jonathan bidding to become the first horse in decades to follow up and win this again. He faces a tough task but fits most of the key trends, age, weight, class and stamina. He is also only 1 pound higher than when winning the race last time out and must be a factor. But on the heavy ground there are others ahead of him in the pecking order. Maarek, who has beaten the reigning champion before, also fits the bill, but may struggle off top weight against some of these. His 5 pound claimer negates the rise from a great run a week ago, but this is a big ask so soon. Hawkeyethenoo continues to be consistent but will need better conditions underfoot. Dandy Nicholls' must always be respected in this contest and he runs Roderigo De Torres and Beacon Lodge. Of the two, the former looks great value at a huge price. He will see out the trip, goes on the soft, and gets some help from the handicapper. Several others are in with great chances under the conditions including Doc Hay, Mirza, Regal Parade and Brae Hill, but the two that stand out amongst these are Captain Ramius and THE CHEKA. The former has been subject of big market movement this morning, and gets the third chance to run of a mark of 100 despite finishing 4th and 3rd on his last two runs in competitive handicaps. He will see out the race and is untroubled by the going, but preference is for The Cheka who is undoubtedly a top class horse and will also see out the trip and appreciate the give underfoot. 16/1


As for the rest of the day, it looks an absolute minefield, so well and truly, best of luck to you with your picks!

The Horse Whisperer