15th September 2012

Welcome to the latest post from The Horse Whisperer. Results have been strong since this was launched online, with yesterday the best day to date. Three horses tipped on the blog post were winners, as well as one horse that came to my attention during the day and was posted on twitter. Remember to follow The Horse Whisperer on twitter to gain the full experience at @thehorsewhisp, including access to the Ladbrokes St Leger 6 picks which would have got you to the final race yesterday.

Needless to say, it's time to move on again and this post provides the first analysis of Saturday racing with The Horse Whisperer. Saturday racing is always interesting for the punter as the increased numbers of meeting and decent races mean that there are selections to be found all over the place. So unlike the past couple of days which have focused solely on Doncaster, we have other meetings to review today. As a result the amount of potential races to analyse is collosal, so the best races for getting a result have been selected. The selections will be sorted into more of an order than before to indicate those that are more fancied and others that are merely of interest to enjoy the entire day's racing. Without further ado let's begin!

THE FEATURE RACE

15.40 Doncaster

One of the most eagerly anticipated races of the year, possibly only second to Frankel's debut at 1m2 in the Juddmonte, we finally get to see if CAMELOT has what it takes to go down as one of the true greats and win the Triple Crown. Everything so far indicates that he will. He has beaten most of his rivals already, will appreciate the drying ground and I dread to think the amount of preparation that has gone into the race to ensure that he sees out the trip and comes out on top. Anyone who will have seen his racecourse gallop at Leopardstown will also see that things are moving in the right way and it does look his for the taking. The only concern is on how Gosden is going to dictate the race. Normally it aggravates me how trainers seem to ignore the other horses in the race and think if we run our race we will win. Gosden knows he has to push Camelot out of his comfort zone to allow either Thoughtworthy or Michelangelo to win, and the declaration of Dartford indicates we should expect a good gallop. The rest of the runners could ignore him however but it will certainly make for interesting viewing. The race lacks any real betting edge, unless you want to dabble in the Betfair place market which is recommended. I'm not a fan of Main Sequence, and even though Lanigan is saying all the right things, my mind won't be changed until I see the race. The Gosden horses look far more likely to fill the places, with Michelangelo's brother No Heretic showing that stamina runs in the family finishing third behind Sir Graham Wade yesterday. However that race was run at a slow pace and turned into a sprint in the end, so Thoughtworthy's pedigree does indicate he is more likely to see out a strongly run 1m6f. In terms of value in the place market though, the two don't rate that well compared to others and as dangerous as it is to take on Frankie and Gosden in the St Leger, Michelangelo and Thoughtworthy both look like they may finish outside the top three. The race does have a couple of runners though who will genuinely enjoy the trip in Guarantee and Ursa Major, both of whom will be staying on as the race progresses. It is extremely interesting that Carmody sends Ursa Major all the way over here for a much tougher race when he could easily have run in the Irish St Leger at the Curragh. Admittedly the prize money is far better over here than back in Ireland, with the 5th placed horse taking more home than the 3rd in Ireland, but connections must think they have more chance than 5th as winning in Ireland would surely be better than 5th in England. As a result Ursa Major is a very interesting runner. Of the other horses Thomas Chippendale seems like he's been forgotten. He's already beaten Thoughtworthy this year off level weights in a truly run race in the King Edward VII Stakes and I can easily forgive his last run as that was just a bizarre race altogether. His pedigree also suggests he will stay so I can see him causing an upset to fill out the places.

1st Camelot 2nd Ursa Major 3rd Thomas Chippendale

BEST BETS - these are the selections that are most fancied and should form the basis of your staking. If you are limited with what you can wager, these are the bets to focus on.

14.25 Doncaster

This 6 runner renewal of the Champagne Stakes may look like a difficult one to call on the form figures, but the betting seems to have this pretty much spot on. On the impressions that have been made so far by these horses, DUNDONNELL, Toronado and Tha'ir have to be considered seriously. The latter is the first we can dismiss purely on the basis that in his races so far, although he has won over 7 furlongs, he hasn't finished them strongly, even losing two places at the death in the Veuve Cliquot Stakes. This is going to be a race run all the way to the line, so it is essential the selection can see out the trip. Toronado certainly showed that at Ascot last time out quickening well to put the race to bed but it is undeniable that Dundonnell's victory was equally as taking, if not more so, because of the opposition he faced. Steeler went on to frank the form, and consequently we can find a route to those winners from the meeting's previous races on the Mary's Daughter form. He is entered for all the big 2 year old autumn races and should take this en route to success later in the year. A big run is expected from the Hannon runner but on form and the belief that Dundonnell will handle the going better, he is the pick. 11/8

16.30 Curragh

Quite the opposite to Doncaster, where the ground seems to be drying out, the Curragh is expecting further rainfall and softening underfoot. Not enough however to make this suit Maarek down to the ground. Starspangledbanner reappears and will no doubt perform better than on his last run, however it takes a lot off faith to back him after that performance and really there is no need to look further than the favourite, FIRE LILY, who will handle the conditions, appreciate the step back up to 6 furlongs, is from a stable in fine form, and recently beat Gordon Lord Byron who ran so well in the Sprint Cup last weekend. She looks very strong. 7/2

18.05 Curragh

The Irish equivalent of the day's big race certainly provides more of a betting angle. It is a poor Grade 1, but as a result has many horses rated within a few pounds of one another. Fame And Glory will naturally grab the attention but I will be steering well clear. That last run in the Gold Cup will remain in the memory as it was such a poor showing. O'Brien afterwards blamed the lack of genuine pace, which he should get here, but I think he is susceptible to younger improvers rather than looking likely to teach them a thing or two. 3 year olds normally have a poor record in this race, which goes against the progressive Hartani and Massiyn but I don't think either rates as much as some of the other horses in the race, even with their 11 pound allowance. Simenon has run well since his sensational Royal Ascot double and will also need a strong gallop, but the real threats in the race are the British pair of Brown Panther and AIKEN. The former has shown signs he is returning to the form of last year but the softening ground is really going to play into the hands of the latter. Racking up a 6-timer before going down to Sea Moon, he ran well in defeat on ground that wasn't ideal. Today will suit him a lot better and this will have been the target for a while. He undoubtedly represents the value in the race. 6/1

18.40 Curragh

The final race in Ireland is one that can also be summed up briefly. It's taken a long time for DAWN APPROACH to make his racecourse reappearance, in which time he's been purchased by Godolphin for a sizeable amount. He returns to the track in Ireland to face several of the opposition he has already beaten and it will take something special to beat him, which doesn't look to exist in this race. It still surprises me that Leitir Mor is so underrated but in the softening conditions I can see him running well for a place turned out quickly from last week's victory. 11/10

VALUE BETS - these are bets at larger odds with a great chance of winning but in tougher races to call

13.50 Doncaster

This opening handicap may look difficult to determine at first with no real stand out horse in form. After looking a bit deeper though, the form pick definitely has to be QUICK WIT. The selection recently has had Cape Classic, Highland Colori and Nanton all behind or in close range whilst conceding hefty chunks of weight, and all three ran well yesterday to show the form has some solidity. Furthermore the unusual combination of Saeed Bin Suroor and William Buick is one that is actually in profit overall so it is of no concern that the young Norwegian born jockey is in the saddle. Frankie may have chosen Invisible Man, but there is nothing in the form to warrant backing him. Likely threats will come from Mabait if the ground is on the fast side and Vainglory. 8/1

16.15 Doncaster

I have been following Strong Suit all season and finally got involved on his last two runs when conditions seemed to be ideal. However he failed to perform and I'm finally of the opinion that he is just not as good as I thought he was. Consequently I'm looking to take him on. Lethal Force hasn't received the credit he deserves for his Hungerford Stakes victory. Although it may seem as if the Strong Suit team got it horribly wrong, it must be remembered Lethal Force previously had finished a second to Rhythm of Light, a length fourth to Ishvana in the Jersey Stakes and was fourth at Royal Ascot last year in the Coventry Stakes. Not exactly a poor CV. However, he won't get the unchallenged lead today of his recent victory and with the likely softer ground, it will pay to look elsewhere. Although SOUL would probably like 'soft' in the going description I think conditions are going to just hold out long enough for him to perform well, especially racing towards the end of the day after all the other horses have been running on the track previously. He was always one to follow after running well behind Black Caviar and can make amends today with a win. 4/1

INTEREST BETS - bets to place if you would like some interest in the following races. These are much harder to call but the research has been done in trying to determine which races were best today to bet on so the results may as well be placed here for anyone who is looking to get involved.

14.40 Chester

This looks a really poor renewal of the Recruitment Stand Cup and could go to any of the runners. GOOD MORNING STAR has been running against very tough opposition recently and should find this a lot easier. 14/1

15.00 Doncaster

A wide open, tremendously tough handicap to call. Several are in with a chance including Kaldoun Kingdom, Hallelujah, Ancient Cross and Prodigality but preference is for MASS RALLY to continue running well and finally get his head in front with. The race should be set up perfectly for him to gain some cover and come through late. At a huge price Beacon Lodge is interesting on his handicap debut, effectively running off 103 whilst previously running to figures in the 110s+ against far superior opposition. 12/1

16.50 Doncaster

This looks like it will come down to either Hoarding or AJMANY who both have form through to Wednesday winner Cour Valant. Based on that Ajmany finished closer and is preferred, especially receiving 2 pounds from his market rival. 6/1

17.20 Doncaster

A tricky final race on the cards with Martin Chuzzlewhit feared as his run last week was almost a practise gallop after having to race from such a wide stall. He should be fit for this after hardly using up any exertions last week. However the youngster may find it hard to get past Viking Storm and FATTSOTA, with preference for the latter who appears to have finally found his optimum trip. 4/1

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer