26th December 2012

Boxing Day is one of the highlights of the jumps season calendars, with several meetings on both sides of the Irish Sea. With the racing coming up and markets available with most bookmakers, here are the selections for the races that will eventually be previewed and found on here.

12.50 Kempton

A decent Novices' hurdle to open the card, it looks set to come down to one of the market principals with RIVER MAIGUE, New Year's Eve and Spirit Of Shankly the most likely winners. The selection is clearly held in high regard by his trainer, who felt he was talented enough to throw into a Grade 2 on his hurdling debut, and he didn't disappoint finishing only a length off Dodging Bullets. He is entitled to improve, and on that basis alone is hard to look past here. New Year's Eve was second in last year's Champion Bumper, and the form of that race is working out well. He would certainly be something special to win this first time out but a good run is expected with his trainer always respected. The final highlighted horse has been advised on a couple of occasions now but doesn't seem up to the task of beating the selection here. 5/4 Stan James, Paddy Power, Sky Bet

14.00 Kempton

It would have taken something truly special for this year's renewal of the Feltham to overshadow last year's event where Grands Crus, Silviniaco Conti, Bobs Worth & Teaforthree all ran; however the 2012 edition should hopefully help to further enhance the reputation of one extremely promising chaser in DYNASTE. Seen as a threat to Big Buck's last year before being comprehensively accounted for on a couple of occasions, he has flourished since switching to fences, already beating Fingal Bay and Unioniste in an impressive way at Cheltenham, the latter going on to land the December Gold Cup, before beating Court In Motion in an even better manner, who again went on to win. He is already rated 161 over fences, at least 16 pounds clear of his rivals in this race and he is unopposable. He rates a worthy favourite for the RSA and can be expected to enhance his claims for that race today. The only slight concern is about the soft ground as the last time he faced anything this soft he came up short at Ascot in the Lough Derg Long Walk Hurdle, but his early exertions in trying to get Big Buck's off the bridle may have caused that. Dynaste's opposition shouldn't be underestimated though and all have the scope to improve. Poungach in particular has drawn admirers as he begins to get to grips with the chasing division, whilst it can't be denied that Hadrian's Approach , Molotof, Theatre Guide and Third Intention are all decent novice chasing prospects. Lovcen finally makes the switch to fences after struggling off top weight in handicaps to break into the places, but he has been running well and will make an impact in this sphere; he would prefer firmer ground though. 4/7 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power

14.35 Kempton

The Christmas Hurdle is trying its hardest to give the King George a run for its money in terms of quality with several of the top 2 milers on show. Last year's Supreme Novice winner Cinders And Ashes looks to make up for disappointing in the Fighting Fifth but it looks a big task for him. Despite winning several times in tough conditions last year, his trainer blamed the soft ground for his poor performance on his reappearance, and with conqueror that day Countrywide Flame renewing rivalries, and with the going still tough, there seems little reason to see him overturning the form today, even with the run under his belt. Countrywide Flame continues to go from strength to strength, and really should be the selection here. He is race fit, handles the going and has the ability to land this, but I'm taking a chance that DARLAN is as good as I hope and that he is a Champion Hurdler in the making. I was so taken by him at Aintree last season that he became my antepost bet for the main event in March there and then. His trainer has said before that Kempton will be as soft as he can probably handle, especially on his first run, and connections certainly won't be disappointed with a good run in defeat, but he undoubtedly has bags of talent and has always caught the eye. The race is not limited to these three either with Dodging Bullets another who has improved this season, and could have his form franked by River Maigue in the first. Eligible for the Supreme Novice this year on account of not winning last season, he has a bit to find to reverse form with his Triumph Hurdle conqueror, but does appeal more than Cinders And Ashes. The McManus second string Get Me Out Of Here on bare form looks a massive price but has shown a couple of times now that soft ground is not his friend and he may ultimately be here to assist Darlan. Raya Star is no pushover either and his performances warrant a crack at Grade 1 level. On ratings he is ahead of several of these, but the others are certainly open to vast improvement. Finally it's great to see Punjabi back on the racetrack after an extremely long break. It will be interesting to how far off his 2009 Champion Hurdle winning form he is. 4/1 Stan James

15.10 Kempton

One of the highlights of the National Hunt season, the King George this year in particular looks to have real strength and depth to it. Whilst Captain Chris, Champion Court, For Non Stop and Junior are all good horses in their own right, with the latter supplemented at a large cost into the race, they are respectfully overlooked because of the strength of the other horses. Grands Crus returns after flopping when favourite in the Paddy Power Gold Cup to the scene of his immense Feltham win, ran in a quicker time than Kauto Star's 5th King George later that day. Whilst breathing operations have reportedly helped many horses, this looks a  huge ask on his first run since then and he is overlooked. I was a massive fan of the horse last year, and think he is a very dangerous opponent in this race, but I can't put my hand in my pocket just yet and back him until we see whether he's back to where he was this time last year. We then come to the real crux of the race, with Long Run currently favourite and likely to shorten in the market as we get nearer to post time. He has proven stamina and is of course a former winner of the race, and this all bodes well, but as much as this prediction may come back to haunt me, this race may just be the first time in his career that he finishes outside the places. I think he needs a real stamina test these days to have the edge over his opponents, and whilst the race is going to be no walk in the park, I don't think it will be beyond his rivals and when you add to that his sketchy jumping and I'm happy to take him on. For the value I'm also going to lay him for a place. Riverside Theatre, his stablemate, is consequently seen by many as the likely winner and again he has an impeccable record. The race has been his target for this season, kept fresh on purpose as he runs well after an absence and further assisted by Geraghty in the saddle. Whilst the horse is not a favourite of mine, it would be foolish to discount his chances and he must rate a big threat. The fact this is his season goal as well means he is going to be primed for it and he has to be one of the placed horses. He has form on soft ground but against inferior opposition, so that may just account for his chance to win. The Giant Bolster is another who has been working towards this target, but ultimately his goal will again be the Gold Cup. His normal partner Tom Scudamore rides Grands Crus, which means the Champ picks up a great spare ride and you can be sure he'll be doing all he can to ensure the horse wins. I have enormous respect for David Bridgwater and what he has done with The Giant Bolster, but I think he is very closely matched to Long Run these days and ultimately can see a few others finishing ahead of him as again he seems better on a sounder surface. That leaves us with Kauto Stone and CUE CARD to fill the top two. The former was really good when winning at Down Royal, beating First Lieutenant who has since gone on to finish third in the Hennessey. That's no mean feat and today's 3 mile trip in soft ground will certainly play to his strengths. He may have originally been seen as Nicholls' second string in this event, but he warrants respect and is a player here. I've seen many opinions who think he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as some of his opposition, but there's plenty to like about him in principal, and his form gives him a line through to Bobs Worth who at the moment is a deserved Gold Cup favourite. However my pick is a slight chance on Cue Card. I say slight because whilst it is true he hasn't raced at 3 miles before, I'm not particularly concerned and feel this trip is well within his compass. His breeding oozes stamina, and ever since he came onto the scene his connections have always viewed and talked about him as a Gold Cup horse. Whilst I'm not sure if I'm on that bandwagon just yet, you don't speak in those terms if there's a doubt the horse would get 3 miles in soft at Kempton. His form also reads tremendously, getting as close as possible to Sprinter Sacre over what would arguably be an inadequate trip, coming within a short head of Bobs Worth when conceding 7 pounds, and a wonderful reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup. He also has soft ground form and will be leading the race, which I always like to see in tough conditions. I think he will be hard to peg back and was always my worry in this race when I was on Al Ferof. 6/1 Bet365, Betvictor, William Hill

13.20 Leopardstown

There were doubts over Our Conor's participation in the race yesterday which would have made this a far easier task for BLOOD COTIL, but even if both line up, Willie Mullins' horse is taken to land this. Both figure prominently in the Triumph market and have been impressive, but the 3 pounds the selection receives may just prove decisive. 6/4 Totesport, Betfred

14.55 Leopardstown

The main race of the day from Ireland, a case could be made for all the runners but this looks set to be a head to head between ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE and Oscars Well. The pair have been ultra impressive since switching to fences, with the selection narrowly preferred for the way he hammered Dedigout. He made all that day, going clear early on and never getting pegged back and I expect similar tactics will be employed to great effect today. He clearly has the stamina for a strongly run 2 miles, and whilst Oscars Well is certainly capable of keeping up with him, his past form over hurdles suggests that if the race was run in this way, he wouldn't see it out as well as his opponent. It's also good to hear that usual partner Ruby Walsh rates him so highly that the only reason he's not on board is because of the King George at Kempton. As stated, Benefficient, Baily Green and Dylan Ross are all good horses themselves, but these two are deservedly being spoken about in terms of challenging for the Arkle and it's a mouthwatering race to watch. 5/6 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James

12.35 Ffos Las

WHISPER has only had the one run under rules, but it was a very taking win over today's venue, beating Cheat The Cheater by 15 lengths who rates a decent enough yardstick this season so far to suggest if running to that level, the selection will be hard to pass. His trainer's attentions may be elsewhere today, but this race will surely have been highlighted as winnable and as long as he jumps soundly, should take all the beating. 8/13 Paddy Power, Coral

15.30 Ffos Las

Mortimers Cross held on well at Kelso 17 days ago to win over 4 miles, and it seems a big ask for him to follow up today after such a short time to recover. He has the help of his claimer, but so does course and distance winner Benheir and CARRUTHERS, who's jockey in particular has begun to make a name for himself with some very good performances on Petit Robin. His talent will be a big help to the Lord Oaksey bred horse who should be well ahead of these if in the mood today after under-performing in the Hennessey last time out. 5/1 Paddy Power

14.15 Wincanton
One of the strangest races of the season, containing 21 runners with 7 representing David Pipe. He's clearly trying to assess the looks of his stable for the handicap hurdle scene and the race is further complicated by the appearance of so many claimers. Ardlui will have plenty of support, with the step up in trip expected to suit and his third behind At Fishers Cross looking better since he ran. However it is hard to get away from some of the Pipe horses and THE PACKAGE and GOULANES stand out, with both advised. The former finished 4th in the Hennessey and races off a much lower mark today then he does over fences. Although stamina is his forte, it's going to be a slog at Wincanton today and he has to be considered. The latter relished the stamina test when winning at Cheltenham 39 days ago, and with his claimer taken into account, actually races off a lower mark than that performance. If you have to plump for one over the other, then at a push I'd choose The Package as he is the classier horse, but they both have an outstanding chance.

14.50 Wincanton

On ratings and form, this looks a good opportunity for ROLLING ACES to follow up on his Newbury win. He showed a really good desire to win that day and the form has only been franked since. He is hard to overlook. 10/11 Sportingbet

12.35 Limerick

This is one of the more speculative selections of the lower class races, but even still a chance is taken on BALLYNACREE to build on last year's promise. His time off the track is not a concern, but Umpact does look to have every chance as well, winning impressively a fortnight ago at Gowran and it should be a good race. 5/1 Stan James, Totesport, Betfred

13.40 Limerick

Another strong favourite who is difficult to overlook; MIKAEL D'HAGUENET finally got the luck he needed to get off the mark over fences at Punchestown and he should make easy enough work of this field. Far Away So Close raced in some tough company last season but doesn't seem to have progressed and the main threat should be Argocat, rated highly by connections and running close to Twinlight, who's form provides a good base to work from. He also receives 11 pounds from the selection which should help make this a close contest but the selection is definitely preferred. 4/9 Bet365, Paddy Power


12.25 Down Royal

SALSIFY and Tammys Hill renew rivalries from 3 weeks ago at Wexford and the former is expected to overturn the form with that run under his belt and likely to be much fitter for it. These hunters chases can often be tricky, but the selection won the main race for these horses at the Festival and certainly seems to retain the ability to say he has a big role to play in all these types of races this season. Viking Splash has on a couple of occasions run reasonably close to Salsify to suggest he is playing for place money again, with Crude, Not Before Eight and Slippers Percy others likely to be involved for third. 9/4 several

UPCOMING
Welsh National (now 5th January) Teaforthree 4/1 Bet365. Boylesports
Dial-a-bet Chase (27th December Leopardstown) Sizing Europe 1/2 Bet365, Paddy Power
Lexus Chase (28th December Leopardstown) Sir Des Champs 3/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James
Istabraq Hurdle (29th December Leopardstown) Hurricane Fly 1/3 Paddy Power

Good luck!

The Horse Whispererz