8th December 2012

Welcome to this Saturday's edition of The Horse Whisperer. Before proceeding, as was stated yesterday, there is a competition underway today and the rules are as follows:-

You must enter 3 horses racing on Saturday, with the winner being the person whose 3 horses produce the biggest profit based on Betfair starting prices (to produce the least risk of variation between bookmakers). Each horse is eligible for a £5 bet, either solely to win or £2.50 each way, and if there is a tie at the top of the leaderboard, the competition will run into Sunday where further information will be provided if necessary. Entrants are encouraged to enter via Twitter by tweeting their 3 horses to @thehorsewhisp and to include the hashtag #THWCOMP but entrants will also be accepted by commenting on this blog post (which should be available at the bottom of each post). Entrance will close at 11am Saturday morning and is open to any UK and Irish race meeting for Saturday. UPDATE - entries will be accepted up until 11.30, 5 minutes before the first race at Lingfield.

Apart from the two feature races of the day, I think there are some real opportunities to get some winners from across the cards. So unlike normal weekend posts where I usually just focus on one meeting, I've tried to pick the best from across the UK & Ireland to enhance the number of winners we can find. So without further ado, here are the best selections.

13.55 Sandown

Considering there are only 5 runners, this is still a decent renewal of the Henry VIII Novices' Chase even with the withdrawal of Overturn. A couple of these, namely CAPTAIN CONAN and Hinterland, feature prominently in the Arkle antepost market, and if there was an upset I'm sure the victor would witness a sizeable reduction in price. Ultimately though this should be straightforward and set the tone for a successful day at Sandown for Henderson & Geraghty. Hinterland has always been viewed as a chaser and I will forgive his last run where he emptied out at the end of the race after going all out up front with Peckhamecho. He clearly likes to lead and with a bit more restraint he will have more to give at the end of the race, but that should just set a decent pace for the favourite who at this stage looks a far better proposition over fences and should be very difficult to beat. The 6 pounds Hinterland receives may look significant here, but by the end of the race I think we will see just how decent an Arkle proposition Captain Conan is and I expect him to win. There's no reason to suggest Third Intention should reverse form with the selection and Act Of Kalanisi and Escort'men need to significantly improve to be involved here. 1/2 several

14.30 Sandown

The market support already witnessed for IFANDBUTWHYNOT really goes to show how fancied he is to follow up on a really impressive Cheltenham display last time out. Originally priced up at 5/1, he has been smashed in to 11/4 in some places and you can't really blame people for trying to get on early after Tanerko Emery, second that day at Cheltenham, followed up with a win yesterday at Sandown. Denis O'Regan's mount faces a big rise in the weights, and whilst you would be confident of him dealing with it, the testing conditions will ensure this race plays to his strength and should mean he is better placed to deal with the rise in the weights. It would be foolish though to believe this is a one horse race. Petit Robin arrives in form and with a handy claimer on board, but it will be interesting to see if he can follow up on that performance against some young improvers who apart from the selection include Swampfire and Softsong. The pair have light burdens to carry in this race with the former in particular enjoying the benefit of a 22 pound swing in the weights from when they raced at Cheltenham once his claimer has been taken into account. Ultimately O'Regan's experience and the way he knows how to ride this horse will be crucial to ensure the form is confirmed. Softsong is a bit of an unknown who has shown he has ability in his limited starts so far. If able to cope with the testing conditions today he rates a chance. 7/2 Boylesports

15.05 Sandown - Tingle Creek

The feature race of the meeting, the Tingle Creek is always a spectacle, but with the inclusion of both SPRINTER SACRE and Sanctuaire it has become the most anticipated race of the season. The two dominate the Queen Mother market and today's race brings back memories of the days when Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief would clash in this race looking to draw first blood prior to March. There may be five other horses in this race, but unless something happens to both, the winner will come from these two. Both camps have been positive about the welfare of their horses, and on bare statistics, Sanctuaire's course and distance form and liking for soft conditions bode well for him. Paul Nicholls has also dominated this race in recent years, but at the end of the day, he faces the next potential superstar in jumps racing and there should be little reason for the market to be wrong here. Although the handicapper only has 3 pounds between these two, I feel it's significant that Timeform rate the pair 11 pounds apart, and with the view that Sprinter Sacre can improve further. I personally feel Nicky Henderson's stable star (and that's some mantle to take in a yard that also includes Long Run, Riverside Theatre, Finian's Rainbow and more) will go the season unbeaten and this will be a big indication of his likely Champion Chase success. He's always wanted to go fast in his races, and with his opponent being a true front runner, there's little to suggest he will get overturned here. I actually think he'll do it with a bit in hand. 4/9 several

14.10 Aintree - Becher Chase

I always enjoy this race as its a first outing of the season for the National fences, which will be under extra scrutiny this season after the fatalities which unfortunately occurred in April. It's great for the race that Ballabriggs lines up at the top of the racecard, even if it means plenty of runners lower down race from out of the handicap. He clearly goes well around here, but first time out and conceding weight to some good rivals, I think he is vulnerable. Last season's winner, West End Rocker, reappears off only a 5 pound higher mark, and with his favoured soft conditions he has to rate a threat; however I think this season's renewal includes a few stronger rivals with BIG FELLA THANKS my preferred choice. My National pick a couple of season's ago where he seemed to be going so well before emptying, this shorter trip should suit perfectly and some delayed payback looks in order. I'm really intrigued by the entry of Poker De Sivola who I'm hoping is having a sighter at the fences in preparation of a bid at this year's national. He's one of the few horses in training who would genuinely relish the four and a half mile trip and if he gets round well here he has to become a player for the main event in April. Problema Tic was advised last time out at Cheltenham, and although coming 5th, that run was ultimately pleasing and he can be involved here. Any Currency is another thorough stayer and again based on that Cheltenham run should be involved if lining up at Aintree (first preference run, second is Sandown 15.40) 7/1 several

13.50 Navan

It's hard to look past ROI DU MEE here, who similar to Bog Warrior last week, gets to race over hurdles off a far lower mark than he would over fences and consequently has to be fancied. It means that even if there is an improving horse in the field, they ultimately have to be racing off a mark around 2 stone lower than they would be today. The same applies to Away We Go and Start Me Up, and on jockey bookings the latter would seemingly be first pick, but this is a very good opportunity for Gordon Elliott's gelding. 3/1 Paddy Power

14.25 Navan

The Irish have one of their Arkle hopes out on display today too today, with OSCARS WELL looking to recover from a crashing fall last time out. I said after that race it would be interesting to see how he would fare on his next start and if he has gotten over that, he should be able to take this. Dylan Ross and Jenari aren't easy opponents, but the latter will be there to race with his stablemate, and on prior form with Noel Meade's horse should be able to beat him again. 8/11 Paddy Power

14.20 Wetherby

After missing his intended race earlier in the week when he was advised, WAR POET lines up today and off bottom weight could look thrown in here. Dontpaytheferryman hasn't looked the same horse as last season whilst it will be interesting to see if Mwaleshi can cope with a 30 pound rise, but on previous form I'm not so sure. 11/4 Paddy Power

They may be mostly favourites, but I've attempted to span the cards to find the strongest horses today.

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer