5th December 2012

With the creation of the antepost markets for this weekend's major races, it seems sensible to explain my thinking behind some claims I made on Twitter yesterday. I fully expect Sprinter Sacre to beat Sanctuaire in the Tingle Creek. I'm hoping it will be an easy race for my Queen Mother Champion elect, but in view of potentially soft conditions I'll just be happy to see him win. According to Timeform ratings, he is clear of his rival and hopefully this race will confirm that, despite Paul Nicholls' exceptional record in the race. He is currently available at a price of 1/2, certainly no price for an outright bet; but with the reappearance of Sir Des Champs, my Gold Cup hope, there is all of a sudden a wonderful double on the cards. I can understand why Flemenstar is favourite for the John Durkan Chase. The race over 2 miles 4 furlongs will not stretch his stamina like the Gold Cup will, which in March will favour the Gigginstown horse, so if Flemenstar is to win, this trip should be it. He also comes into the race on the back of a good win in the Fortria Chase which his backers will point to to say he is racefit whereas his rival may not be. This is even more daunting when you consider the fact that the past 10 winners of the race have all had at least 1 or 2 runs prior to it; but as I also pointed out on Twitter yesterday, this was a trend for the Drinmore and the Hattons Grace races last Sunday which ultimately ended up being won by first time out horses trained by none other than Sir Des Champs' Willie Mullins. In other words if there is a man to prep a horse at home, its our Willie and if Sir Des Champs is going to win the Gold Cup, then he should be good enough to win this. He's unbeaten, is undoubtedly a top class chaser and I can't imagine his connections would be pleased to see him lose (but admit they would still think he would win come March even if turned over). It's the proverbial head versus heart, and the head should say this is for Flemenstar to take, but at 7/4 (and possibly higher on the day) and with the form of the Mullins' yard, I have no problem backing the double at a very tasty 3.12/1.

Yesterday saw us return with 2 second places, and I think we should have a good chance of going that one place better today. The following races revolve around the likely favourite, but it is the first race that will provide the value in particular if getting on at the time of writing.

13.10 Hereford

VULCANITE is likely to go off odds on after a pleasing return to racing over hurdles at Fakenham. There is a slight note of caution though. He usually prefers slightly firmer ground, and when seen over hurdles he liked to come through late off a decent pace. He may not get that here with the runners he faces usually held up, but starting out over fences today, which has always looked like it would suit, may mean that a change of tactics and style isn't a concern. He faces Salden Licht, last seen racing in very good company 2 seasons ago, but to win after a 606 day absence would be nothing short of a wonderful training performance by Alan King. With that in mind, AP's mount does look set to take this, as he should be much better than the other horses he faces, and his fitness should be the edge with Salden Licht. Evens Paddy Power

14.20 Catterick

Donald McCain is usually very good at placing his horses and DOYLY CARTE returns to the scene of her first win under rules after an easy hurdling debut. She consequently carries a penalty for this race but should dwarf her rivals here and come out on top. Phase Shift looks worthy of consideration as this should be far easier than her debut behind Balder Success but it's hard to know what to make of that form. 4/11 several

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer