3rd November 2012

Welcome again to the weekend and once again a terrific set of cards from the UK, Ireland & the USA. In a bid to get back to winning ways and provide a look at the races most people will be interested in today, the main races previewed will be the 3 big chases from Wetherby and Down Royal - the Charlie Hall, JNWine and Ladbrokes. Once these races have been previewed, the post will be published online, and from any subsequent research undertaken, if something stands out as worthy of being published, that will also get posted on here.

FEATURE RACES

15.25 Wetherby - Charlie Hall Chase

Whatever you end up backing in this race, it's going to be a great one to watch. Each horse has their own individual positives and negatives and I'll go through each of them before concluding on PLANET OF SOUND as my pick. The best place to start is with the favourite, Silviniaco Conti. On another day I would be all over this horse. He was one of my bankers of the Grand National meeting because he seems the type to really enjoy a decent break in between races and he can be aimed at one well. These bode well for today, but at the same time, Nicholls has said very publicly that this is a future Gold Cup horse, but for 2014 onwards and things are going to be taken slowly with him. There's no doubt that he deserves his chance today in this company taking on beaten Gold Cup horses, but I don't think his trainer will be disappointed to see him defeated if he puts in a good display and runs well. Walsh is also on the scene to further his relationship with the horse, so although a win would be great, I can imagine they won't be too despondent if they come up short. On a trends basis, he would become the first horse since Ollie Magern in 2005 to win aged 7 or under and you have to go back to the race's second running ever in 1982 to find a horse under 7, so on that basis he has a big ask. At the same time, this horse undoubtedly possesses class, and I don't expect him to finish down the field, but these factors combined with how I think the race will be run (see later) mean that I will definitely be taking him on at his short price. Upon discarding the favourite, many will plump for Time For Rupert to go one better than in this race last year. Favourite for the RSA Chase in 2011, he disappointed that day and apart from a win at Newbury where he was able to dictate, he hasn't performed as expected and as a result has never enthused me. Many will argue he deserves to land a prize like this, but once again on how I think the race will be run, the selection will hopefully outstay him. Although receiving 4 pounds from Midnight Chase, I think it's very hard to split those two based on last season's form even though I prefer Neil Mulholland's stable star. However he has to win carrying 11 stone 10; not unheard of but it has proven beyond all bar the great Old Vic in the past 10 years. As this isn't a Grade 1 but the horses are closely matched, those few pounds count and that's what will probably end Midnight Chase's chance. Master Of The Hall is the other horse in the race who has to carry 11 stone 10; absurd when you compare the horses' official ratings, but the race should suit him. He relishes small fields like this and his wins are often in races like today's. However he ultimately has to improve a lot to make an impact off top weight and he should be outclassed here. Wayward Prince lived up to his name and was wayward all of last year and is yet to recover the form of his 3rd in the 2011 RSA Chase where he finished ahead of Time For Rupert. His trainer has tried a change of scenery this summer and reports him to be well, but we won't know what difference there is until today and consequently he is passed over. As a result we are left with Planet Of Sound and the race does look nicely set up for him. He may be 10 but he has been lightly campaigned in recent years and his races are picked carefully. Last year was all about building him up to the National, and he ran extremely well until ultimately emptying out near the end. He was ridden positively that day and it worked well, so I'm hoping Hobbs and Johnson see that and see this is an opportunity to make this a bit more of a stamina test to play to his strengths. On top of that he runs well fresh, will enjoy the conditions underfoot and is a good jumper. The icing on the cake is the 10, 6 and 5 pounds he receives respectively from his rivals and he looks all set to run better than his market position and claim this prize. 11/2 Totesport

14.25 Down Royal - JNWine.com Champion Chase

Sometimes in racing you get distracted by prices on horses you would never normally see and think you just have to snap up the value. The 2/1 currently available on Sizing Europe is the biggest price you could have had him at since this race last year and although it is extremely tempting on this undoubted chasing supremo, its not enough to entice me. Although his trainer is convinced he can last 3 miles and he needs good ground to do it, it comes across as if 3 miles is his absolute limit, and seeing as conditions won't be optimal today he is going to be pushed to his extremes again and there are definitely better stayers in the race. The obvious one being Quito De La Roque who outstayed Sizing Europe to land the prize a year ago. A good chaser in his own right, he has done me plenty of favours but in today's less testing conditions he is susceptible to some of the other horses and although Davy Russell picks him as his mount, it is the other Gigginstown horse I like, FIRST LIEUTENANT. His trainer certainly knows how to do well in this race, and everything he has done suggests 3 miles chasing is his game. His recent 4th behind Sizing Europe will have been good to sharpen him up and he is far too big a price. His form over today's trip is also good as on the two occasions he has raced at 3 miles, he has lost to Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase and Last Instalment, who was magnificent all of last season. He had the option of running either here or at Wetherby, and I can only assume Down Royal was chosen for slightly better ground which will aid his cause further. Bryan Cooper picks up the spare ride and it should be a profitable one as I can't see him being out the top three and think he has a great chance of winning. Kauto Stone represents Paul Nicholls who believes the step up to 3 miles is going to bring more out of this horse. Impressive when winning the Ladbrokes Chase last year first time out he showed that this is the time of year to catch him, but I'm still to be convinced he is a genuine Grade 1 horse and until he shows otherwise he is passed over. Realt Dubh looks to improve for the step up in trip as well, and only on very best form can Joncol and Follow The Plan ever be considered. Chicago Grey is an out and out stayer and may just be trying this race to see how he compares with Grade 1 horses. If conditions deteriorated though he would be more interesting. 9/1 Stan James, William Hill

15.00 Down Royal - Ladbrokes Chase

I've so far taken the Nicholls' horses on but feel CRISTAL BONUS has the best chance of providing his trainer with a winner and will make it worthwhile sending some horses over to Ireland. He has a great record in this race, the horse runs well fresh, and although he would ideally prefer softer ground, so would his rivals and he looks best set to cope with the conditions. Bog Warrior is the current favourite but his performances have been far more inconsistent and when he has been let down, it's been by his jumping. Entitled to improve, the 2 pounds he concedes to the selection may ultimately prove crucial and on current facts he is seen as a lay. Of the rest, it would be a big ask for Jacksonslady to win this, but feel she has enough about her to finish ahead of the rest. 13/8 Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betvictor

OTHER SELECTIONS

15.50 Ayr

Not today's most glamorous meeting, but this race provides a nice bet for us with TAP NIGHT topping the weights and by some margin. Rightly so, he should be a class above his rivals and is an exciting prospect this year. He's great value at current prices. 9/4 Bet365, Betvictor

14.35 Ascot

This is one of the most competitive cards of the day and should be another great one to watch. Ile De Re sneaks in at the bottom of the weights and will run well. Cape Express comes in great form and Ted Spread, Nampour, Paintball, It's A Gimmee are all respected. Raya Starr will need this pipeopener but I like CLARET CLOAK each way. He's been aimed at this by his trainer and she has won the race before. I like his chances a lot. 10/1 Sky Bet, Stan James, Paddy Power

15.10 Ascot

Another tough encounter to call, made even murkier by the inclusion of some horses who are being aimed at the National this year. As a result although horses aren't meant to be raced to not win, they won't want them to win by a margin that's going to make a massive change to their rating. Potential National horses include Roberto Goldback, Le Beau Bai, Tullamore Dew and FRISCO DEPOT and despite this concern the latter is fancied each way here. He ran some good races amongst the best in Ireland last year and performs well at tracks like this. Ace High, Duke Of Lucca, Baile Anrai and Alfie Spinner should also put in good displays and are the main threats. 10/1 Paddy Power

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer