11th October 2012

An unfortunate day yesterday. With firm in the description, it was probably unwise to back Hazy Tom on his chasing debut, and South Stack and Go Native went on to lose narrowly. Interestingly, the latter's trainer felt that with a slightly more patient ride he would have won. What is certain however was that this return to racing was a good one by the former Champion Hurdle favourite, and although it's too early to say whether that's the level he should be competing at again, it will be very interesting to follow him and see how he progresses as the season goes on. I suspect with the inclusion of obstacles again he will be an even bigger threat as he clearly knows how to jump them which should gain him some lengths on his rivals. Impressive also was the debut performance of Kingsbarns, enough to warrant a 16/1 quote for next year's Derby. Again at these early stages, there is plenty to come in between, but he is another to follow. Something I will be especially keen to see is how he handles better ground, as the Epsom race is rarely run on something as soft as today. This is a young horse however, who quickened well and didn't look to be stopping so the future is certainly promising.

15.10 Ayr

This race seems to stand out to me as one where we can get a decent run. The current market leader is Green Park, and although his last run was good behind All Or Nothin, his performances under today's claimer Luke Leadbitter don't inspire as much confidence. Furthermore, on form through Fieldgunner Kirkup, who races in the 15.40, and Sovereign Street, he may just have to improve to beat some of the others in the race. Defence Council is one of those it seems may be able to account for the favourite, but having to concede 8 pounds to CHOOKIE ROYALE looks a tough task. The selection has been racing well recently and only faces a 1 pound rise for his recent second behind Fieldgunner Kirkup. He was headed towards the end of that 7 furlong race, so although his good recent performances have been at that distance, this drop combined with the soft ground isn't a problem. The only worry is that he does seem to race well when racing frequently, so whether he needs to keep racing to get the best out of him is open to debate. He should be thereabouts today, and should also be followed if he just misses out here, but at current prices he certainly holds some value. Sam Nobulist isn't fancied over this shorter trip. 5/1

19.50 Kempton

The market principals have been done no favours by the draw, but as we saw yesterday, plenty were able to win drawn from wide. If they have the ability they can still win from wide, so don't let the draw put you off some of these. Course and distance winner Triple Charm arrives off the back of a good win but races off a career high mark and may find this tougher than that fillies handicap she won. Another course and distance winner, Palace Moon, has the plum draw, and if bouncing back to form has as good a chance as any, but I prefer the look of YAA WAYL. He's starting to string some performances together, and his recent second at Haydock had some decent horses behind. The wide draw and a need to get up with the pace early on may not hinder him as he has previously run over as far as 10 furlongs and the polytrack shouldn't be a problem to him either. Belgian Bill's form has recently taken some big knocks and Silverheels isn't the horse he used to be. 6/1

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer