19th September 2012

Another frustrating day yesterday saw the two selections finish 2nd and 3rd respectively. Artisitc Jewel was ultimately defeated by the claimer on Lui Rei and Willie Wag Tail went down to two horses from nowhere who had been racing in good races, but shown nothing to indicate such a performance was expected. Disappointing, but it means a horse tipped on this blog hasn't finished outside the top 3 for three consecutive days and it shows we're not far off. Hopefully today will be the day where things fall our way. Luckily there are some more races from a higher grade, which should ensure that form holds true and the better horse will usually win.

14.55 Listowel

This Listed contest looks very interesting, and although O'Brien's horses don't appear to be at the peak of their game at the moment, one that does is CHAMONIX. The first horse tipped on this blog 9 days ago, he strolled to victory that day, relishing the soft conditions and easily handling the mile and a half distance. He beat Demurley and Macbeth that day and should account for them again today. Defining Year appears to be having a year far from that, winless since March 2011, he looks exposed against the improving Chamonix and would be a surprise winner. Tandem looks a major threat, running well in his previous three starts, winning impressively twice and only going down to Loreto, who won yesterday. The step up will certainly suit as he's not been stopping in his previous races, but he hasn't beaten anything of note like the selection has and Chamonix should be able to test Tandem for the first time in a while. Minsk is a very interesting proposition, back on the flat for the first time in 207 days. His last run over hurdles was a second to Burrenbridge Lodge, who also won yesterday, but Minsk's flat form hasn't worked out that well and O'Brien's horse is taken to strike whilst the iron is hot. 7/4

16.05 Listowel - Kerry National

The Kerry National has been won by some decent horses in the past, and the trends profile of the usual winner indicates it is a horse that has some true ability that usually wins this race. Although Premier Dane is obviously in great form, no horse aged 10 or over has won in the last 10 years and the winner in the last 9 has been aged 6 to 8. Add into the fact the horse usually carries 10 stone 10 pounds and above and the field nicely cuts to 6. Of the ones missing Premier Dane is respected, as is 9 year old Themoonandsixpence, aided by the superb records of Walsh and Mullins in the race. Although a huge ask on his first run since 2010 to win this, it would not be the biggest surprise but from the trends preference is elsewhere. Casey Top of joint top weight comes also in good form, but would appreciate better ground than he is going to receive and when the going is tougher, has struggled to see out 3 miles. Of those that fit the trends, Wellforth comes in seeking a hatrick, but was gifted his last race so the 7 pound rise may find him out. Deal Done is undoubtedly a good horse, but would ideally like further than the 3 miles on offer today. Instead this looks like an opportunity for START ME UP to confirm a good Cheltenham performance. Probably still recovering from that excellent 5th behind Sunnyhillboy when pulling up in the Irish Grand National, his recent run over hurdles was clearly a loosener for today's race. He represents big connections who have got their main boy Davy Russell out to steer him home, and he could take a lot of beating in this as he has no concerns over the trip and conditions. 14/1

15.15 Yarmouth

This Listed contest may have 13 runners in it, and Teddy Grimthorpe is right when he says there is no such thing as an easy Listed race, but it is hard to get away from TIMEPIECE in this. A Group 1 winner last year, still racing unpenalised, she receives 8 pounds from Clinical who she finished well ahead of in the Nassau off level weights. She also finished a very close 4th in Group 1 company to the brilliant Snow Fairy last time out and this drop in class should be hers for the taking. Emirates Queen was disappointing last time out on soft ground but her previous second by a neck to Barefoot Lady took a big boost this weekend. That cannot be compared however to Timepiece's run to Snow Fairy and if the selection may not even need to run her best to win this. Sweetnessandlight has definite place claims as she wasn't stopping over a mile last time out and will appreciate the fast ground. 5/6

15.50 Yarmouth

Anjaz will appreciate the drop back to 1m2 after emptying in the last furlong 39 days ago at Haydock. However it would take faith to back her in this race and others are preferred. Colour Guard's last race was a good fourth to Labarinto, where the second that day Prussian has won since. He looks as if he will struggle to concede a couple of pounds to some of these though. Initiator looks a major player. His best form is undeniably on this type of ground and has raced in some top class races this year. Unfortunately he hasn't really shown much in them, and last time out when expected to win, went down to Universal. Although that horse has since gone on to win again, a near 5 length defeat does not bode well, and instead a chance is taken on COMMITMENT to bounce back to form after a break. Although most of his form is on soft ground, his first two runs were on firmer going and indicate he should handle the 10 furlongs on this going. His debut run was a 6 and half length fourth to Encke off level weights, so he certainly has some ability and under that infamous Fallon drive he is taken to land this one. 8/1

16.55 Yarmouth

The top four in the weights and market are certainly the ones to focus on here. My Propeller has been racing in some very good races without making much of a mark, and this return to 5 fulongs with Frankie in the saddle could be just what the doctor ordered. However her past runs don't inspire much and she is overlooked. Swiss Cross certainly seems to hold Stone Of Folca on current form, especially seeing as their previous meeting was at Epsom where the latter runs better than anywhere else. Nevertheless, the fast ground could be the key to this and that will certainly suit WHAILEYY who can return from a break and an unfavourable draw at Goodwood last time to take this one. The form of his prior run behind Barnet Fair is very likeable in these conditions and he can score a winner on the board for Botti. 5/1

16.00 Sandown

Tazahum is the highest rated horse in the race and along with Set The Trend should run a fair race as the older horses. However there look susceptible to the improving three year olds. It has been really difficult to separate GABRIAL, who has been racing in ludicrously high company since winning a handicap in May, and  Fulbright who comes into this race off the back of a very good effort behind Thistle Bird last time out. The latter will enjoy the fast ground but this company will take a lot less beating for Gabrial and he has a great chance of doing that today dropped back to his preferred mile with Richard Hughes on board. It has been very difficult to separate these two and if Gabrial doesn't pull this off, then he doesn't rate as highly as connections feel. This is a big race for him, and he needs to see it out if he is to be taken seriously at Group level again. 4/1

16.35 Sandown

An interesting handicap to end on, headed up by Royal Empire. A win for Initiator earlier would further help his claims, but I don't see why he should reverse form with COME ON BLUE CHIP giving away further weight, and the same idea applies to Switzerland. Come On Blue Chip gets to race off a lower mark than that race on the polytrack and although his form on turf leaves little to be desired, none of the other runners stands out and catches the eye, so the extra weight advantage should mean he has enough to take this. 11/2

In a bit to improve your chances of making profit, here are the preferred bets:
Timepiece, Chamonix double
Gabrial treble
Whaileyy accumulator

Good luck!

The Horse Whisperer